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  HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied
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Author Topic: HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied  (Read 1196 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: October 28, 2014, 10:13:59 am »

Article.

Takai (D)- 45%
Djou (R)- 45%
Not sure- 9%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 01:47:51 pm »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2014, 01:54:45 pm »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.
Because "Muh Blue State" and "Muh Takai is a True Liberal".
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KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2014, 02:48:21 pm »

Schatz's massive coattails will help Takai.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 12:58:35 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 01:04:07 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2014, 02:37:41 am »
« Edited: October 29, 2014, 02:39:15 am by Recalcuate »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.

If it's D+18, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican should have about a 0.00% chance of winning it. The most partisan D district held by a Republican right now is CA-31, which is D+5.

No Democrats even hold a R+18 or higher seat.

Hard to believe this is a reliable poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2014, 02:51:44 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.

If it's D+18, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican should have about a 0.00% chance of winning it. The most partisan D district held by a Republican right now is CA-31, which is D+5.

No Democrats even hold a R+18 or higher seat.

Hard to believe this is a reliable poll.

Uh, did you read my post? Why would you rely just on PVI, when you have ACTUAL election results with the identical Republican running to compare it to?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii,_2010#Results

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii,_2012#General_election_results

Margin matters. Djou kept it within single digits in both 2010 and, extraordinarily, 2012. If he could do that in 2012, why in the world would he not be able to in 2014 against a non incumbent, lower turnout election, more Republican friendly environment, and no Obama coattails? This is the third poll in a row to show a close race here. It's not an outlier. "Muh PVI" can't explain everything.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/hi/hawaii_1st_district_djou_vs_takai-5230.html
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Vega
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 11:57:20 am »

If Hanabusa won in the 2010 general, Takai will win now. Bad poll etc.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 12:08:41 pm »

Takai probably wins by mid-single digits, considering that, except for Aloha vote poll (which guessed Hanabusa would win by 5 and she won by 6), most pollsters got the 2010 race wrong too.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 03:20:03 am »

No clue why everyone thought this was safe D for most of the election cycle.

D+18 is a damn good reason.  This is really surprising.

Is it really though? Djou held Hanabusa to a 9 point win in 2012 even as Obama was romping with 70%+ in the state. Now there's no incumbent, it's lower turnout, more Republican friendly year, no Obama coattails, and Djou is running again. That seems like a rather obvious recipe for a very close race to me, PVI notwithstanding.

If it's D+18, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican should have about a 0.00% chance of winning it. The most partisan D district held by a Republican right now is CA-31, which is D+5.

In 2008, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican won in a D+25 district, and that wasn't even a midterm. PVI doesn't determine everything
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 11:45:39 am »

In 2008, a non-redistricted non-incumbent Republican won in a D+25 district, and that wasn't even a midterm. PVI doesn't determine everything

That was in a December election and the incumbent Democrat had just been wrapped up in a huge scandal.  To my knowledge no such thing is going on in Hawaii right now.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 11:50:55 am »

I will say Hawaii is one place where I'll trust Democrat internals, and Takai is up 7 in the latest DCCC poll.
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