Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2019, 01:49:07 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  KS-SUSA: Orman +2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: KS-SUSA: Orman +2  (Read 1604 times)
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 28, 2014, 05:04:45 pm »

44/42.
Logged
Khristie Kreme Donuts
interstate73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 635


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 05:06:51 pm »

#Ormantum
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2014, 05:07:15 pm »

Dang undecideds, making me nervous.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,811
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2014, 05:09:45 pm »

Stupendous news! Gregory the Gallant will be a great senator.
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,172
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2014, 05:10:04 pm »

Dang undecideds, making me nervous.

http://youtu.be/ArC7XarwnWI
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2014, 05:38:20 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 05:40:06 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Fossil in, fossil out.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,016
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 05:44:33 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

It is a bit nerve wracking that Roberts does not have a plurality by now. Nevertheless, I still concur that Republicans will come home by Election Day.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,380
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2014, 05:46:54 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,016
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2014, 05:48:28 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,380
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2014, 05:50:42 pm »

^ Fine, I walked into that one Tongue
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,811
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2014, 05:51:19 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2014, 05:54:05 pm »

Miles, enough of the independent avatar charade.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,016
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2014, 06:00:04 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?

What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,811
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2014, 06:06:42 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?

What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.

My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus. We all have inconsistencies. Wink
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,016
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2014, 06:22:26 pm »

SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?

Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives...

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true.

Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from?

What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting.

My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus. We all have inconsistencies. Wink

That was a poor choice of words on my part. I did not think that LePage was actually ahead 10 points, but that such a poll would be indicative of a slight LePage advantage, given that the consensus is a dead heat. Begich's 10 point lead on the other hand came from a partisan firm at a time when every other pollster showed a 3-5 point Sullivan advantage, and thus I was skeptical. However, given that a more recent nonpartisan poll have given a similar result, I am willing to put aside my initial misgivings about the Alaska poll, as my prediction indicates.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,012
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2014, 11:34:00 am »

Orman's 11 best poll showings since mid August:

49
48
48
48
47
46
46
46
46
45
45

Roberts 11 best poll showings since mid August:

49
48
44
44
44
43
42
42
42
42
41

And these numbers don't even include the retracted Rasmussen poll which showed Orman 12% ahead.

In all 16 polls registered with RCP, Orman's median is 46, while Roberts' median is 42. Only two pollsters, a Republican firm and YouGov, are currently showing Roberts ahead. Plus two really old polls by Fox and CNN.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2014, 11:37:19 am »

Can't feel to good about a lead this small. There's a great chance that Roberts will survive.
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,946


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2014, 05:52:25 pm »

I think republicans will come home in the end here.
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2014, 06:08:18 pm »

I think republicans will come home in the end here.

Ummm....there are only 5 days left...times is running out for the DC Fossil.
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,946


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2014, 06:35:56 pm »

You're insufferable
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC