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Author Topic: KS-SUSA: Davis +3  (Read 1727 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 28, 2014, 05:05:59 pm »

46/43.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 05:08:50 pm »

Stupendous news! Dominating Davis will be a great governor.
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Marston
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2014, 05:15:30 pm »

The democracy hater Kobach is also tied at 45%, I see.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2014, 05:40:29 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Boston Bread
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2014, 05:42:47 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.
And by favourite you mean underpeforming a mormon elitist by at least 22 points.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2014, 05:46:35 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 05:56:26 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?

Why would I gloat at all? To fit in with the pathetic hoards around here? Please.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 06:08:51 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?

Why would I gloat at all? To fit in with the pathetic hoards around here? Please.

So then you WON'T accept your accolades if Brownback and Roberts win?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2014, 06:14:26 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?

Why would I gloat at all? To fit in with the pathetic hoards around here? Please.

So then you WON'T accept your accolades if Brownback and Roberts win?

Phil generally is a nutcase during the run-up to elections, but can be quite decent and respectful if it doesn't go his way in the end.

There is obviously one exception to that. But I fully expect accolades to be accepted if one or both of them wins. Funnily, I think the response to and Orman/Davis sweep would be dismissive, rather than dramatic.
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2014, 06:21:11 pm »

Dominating!
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Or Bullock. Or Gabbard. Or Gillibrand. Or Harris. Honestly, anyone but Biden or Booker.
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2014, 06:22:41 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

I hope your Kansas prediction is as accurate as your Brazil one about Dilma not being reelected Smiley
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2014, 06:37:01 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

I hope your Kansas prediction is as accurate as your Brazil one about Dilma not being reelected Smiley

Ok, I addressed your obsessive remarks in another thread today. So get over it.

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?

Why would I gloat at all? To fit in with the pathetic hoards around here? Please.

So then you WON'T accept your accolades if Brownback and Roberts win?

Phil generally is a nutcase during the run-up to elections, but can be quite decent and respectful if it doesn't go his way in the end.

There is obviously one exception to that. But I fully expect accolades to be accepted if one or both of them wins. Funnily, I think the response to and Orman/Davis sweep would be dismissive, rather than dramatic.

Ah, yes, I'm generally the nutcase because I'm one of like four Republicans in a sea of Demohackery that dares to speak up. Silly me!
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2014, 06:53:24 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

I hope your Kansas prediction is as accurate as your Brazil one about Dilma not being reelected Smiley

Ok, I addressed your obsessive remarks in another thread today. So get over it.

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?

Why would I gloat at all? To fit in with the pathetic hoards around here? Please.

So then you WON'T accept your accolades if Brownback and Roberts win?

Phil generally is a nutcase during the run-up to elections, but can be quite decent and respectful if it doesn't go his way in the end.

There is obviously one exception to that. But I fully expect accolades to be accepted if one or both of them wins. Funnily, I think the response to and Orman/Davis sweep would be dismissive, rather than dramatic.

Ah, yes, I'm generally the nutcase because I'm one of like four Republicans in a sea of Demohackery that dares to speak up. Silly me!

No, that's not why.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2014, 07:45:10 pm »

Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2014, 04:25:06 am »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

I hope your Kansas prediction is as accurate as your Brazil one about Dilma not being reelected Smiley

Ok, I addressed your obsessive remarks in another thread today. So get over it.


It's not my problem if you keep making bad predictions and pretending we're "Demhacks" because we don't agree with them.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2014, 05:50:43 am »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

I hope your Kansas prediction is as accurate as your Brazil one about Dilma not being reelected Smiley

Ok, I addressed your obsessive remarks in another thread today. So get over it.


It's not my problem if you keep making bad predictions and pretending we're "Demhacks" because we don't agree with them.

No, it's you're problem that you salivate over the "bad predictions" without taking the commentary with a grain of salt. I'm sorry that you're too dense to understand. I'm sure you'll be all over Lief after Tuesday when there's no Dem wave in the House, right?

Even if my prediction was 100% serious, having to make several comments in different threads to call it's inaccuracy to my attention is pathetic and borderline spam. Move on, dude.

P.S. - Be sure you give your highly accurate predictions on these races well before Tuesday or kindly refrain the superiority routine.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2014, 11:28:40 am »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Of course, the one with low approval ratings who is having hoards of his party endorsing the Democrat in his race.

The Heartland's Favorite Governor
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2014, 08:25:05 pm »

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

I hope your Kansas prediction is as accurate as your Brazil one about Dilma not being reelected Smiley

Ok, I addressed your obsessive remarks in another thread today. So get over it.

Kansas GOP will deliver a smashing victory for The Heartland's Favorite Governor.

Just out of curiosity, if one of Brownback/Roberts loses and the other wins, will you be gloating or upset on election night?

Why would I gloat at all? To fit in with the pathetic hoards around here? Please.

So then you WON'T accept your accolades if Brownback and Roberts win?

Phil generally is a nutcase during the run-up to elections, but can be quite decent and respectful if it doesn't go his way in the end.

There is obviously one exception to that. But I fully expect accolades to be accepted if one or both of them wins. Funnily, I think the response to and Orman/Davis sweep would be dismissive, rather than dramatic.

Ah, yes, I'm generally the nutcase because I'm one of like four Republicans in a sea of Demohackery that dares to speak up. Silly me!

Recount closely. This isn't 2008 Forum anymore.

Oh, and lest we all forget, Brownback will be elected "comfortably".
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 08:29:06 pm by Badger »Logged

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2014, 08:36:19 pm »

Badger, you're seriously pathetic and proving your obsession with me. Instead of just ignoring it, you're fixated on making my prediction "wrong" even if Brownback wins. Not even the biggest hacks around here have harped on this as much as you.

But go on now, Badge. Tell us how this isn't about you having an issue with me. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2014, 10:52:38 pm »

Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
Highly unlikely - Republicans are up by over 20 points with early voting.
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King
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2014, 11:21:40 pm »

Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
Highly unlikely - Republicans are up by over 20 points with early voting.

Republicans are not necessarily voting for Brownback. That's why this is a race.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2014, 11:27:47 pm »

Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
Highly unlikely - Republicans are up by over 20 points with early voting.

Republicans are not necessarily voting for Brownback. That's why this is a race.
The last numbers I saw had Republicans at 53% and Democrats at around 30%, with the rest Independents. If Brownback is losing that sample by 19% he is on his way to a landslide defeat.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2014, 11:33:53 pm »

Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!
Highly unlikely - Republicans are up by over 20 points with early voting.

Republicans are not necessarily voting for Brownback. That's why this is a race.
The last numbers I saw had Republicans at 53% and Democrats at around 30%, with the rest Independents. If Brownback is losing that sample by 19% he is on his way to a landslide defeat.

Party registration and party ID can wildly differ. The Monmouth poll in Kansas with Davis up 5 had this:

Party registration:
60% R
25% D
15% I

Party ID:
42% R
24% D
34% I

Registered Republicans who self identify as independents are exactly the type of people who would break overwhelmingly for Davis. If they weren't doing so, this would be a Brownback landslide.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 11:58:32 pm by IceSpear »Logged

Recalcuate
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2014, 11:38:44 pm »

Quote
14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these "banked" votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

Splendid news!

You cant take any stock in these Early Voting subsamples of around 100 alleged early voters. Your MOE there is roughly +/- 10%. Meaningless.
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2014 Predictions
Senate Misses: NC
Governor Misses: CO, KS, IL, FL, MD
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