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  IA: Quinnipiac - Ernst up 4
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Author Topic: IA: Quinnipiac - Ernst up 4  (Read 2303 times)
Marston
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« on: October 29, 2014, 06:17:02 am »

49-45.

Braley up 21 among those who've already voted.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2103
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Maistre
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 06:23:22 am »

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Invisible Obama
DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 06:24:57 am »

Please, don't post pictures of McConnell, he's dreadfully homely. With that said, Braley being up 21 among those who have already voted is good.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 06:30:18 am »

Again, this race is gonna go down to wire, Ernst, Gardner are not running away, this poll shows that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 06:53:50 am »

Senator Ernst has doubled her lead since their last poll! I can hear the squealing already!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 06:55:03 am »

Snip snip snip.

538 had this guy as a 75% favorite not too long ago. Thanks Barry!
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2014, 07:08:02 am »

Ernst isnt Senator already and with Ia, CO and Ga so close, all we have to win 2 of these, but Ernst due to her miitary background is a stronger than ecpected candidate.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2014, 07:11:00 am »

Ernst isnt Senator already and with Ia, CO and Ga so close, all we have to win 2 of these, but Ernst due to her miitary background is a stronger than ecpected candidate.

Joni Ernst is currently a Senator.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 07:16:46 am »

It's always darkest before the dawn.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 07:20:18 am »

AK, CO, IA, KS, Ga and La will be close.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2014, 07:57:03 am »

Does anyone else find these numbers don't make any sense with the Republicans doing comparatively well on the early ballot requests and returns? The only way Braley is up by huge numbers in early voting is if he's also winning independents widely. Which seems unlikely based on the headline numbers.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2014, 08:01:44 am »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-27

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, I: 2%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Free Bird
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2014, 08:08:35 am »

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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2014, 08:26:23 am »

Does anyone else find these numbers don't make any sense with the Republicans doing comparatively well on the early ballot requests and returns? The only way Braley is up by huge numbers in early voting is if he's also winning independents widely. Which seems unlikely based on the headline numbers.


His campaign is claiming exactly that. His campaign is also making the bold claim that he is winning Des Moines, IA-01, and IA-02. Imagine that!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2014, 11:23:14 am »
« Edited: October 29, 2014, 11:30:49 am by Mehmentum »

How does that 21 point lead with early voters compare to previous elections?  It sounds big.  It doesn't make sense to me considering ballot returns (http://dd.aoshq.com/iowa-ballot-returns/) show only a slim Dem lead.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2014, 11:35:26 am »

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2014, 11:53:25 am »

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

Quinnipiac gets it closer to right toward the end of the cycle. I'm willing to trust this.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2014, 04:06:54 pm »

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

R-friendly as in what? Showing Republicans ahead?
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morgieb
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2014, 04:13:18 pm »

21 point lead with early voting, yet down by 4? Colour me skeptical.

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

R-friendly as in what? Showing Republicans ahead?
As in showing the Pubs ahead by more than say PPP or SurveyUSA (to name two polls with a very strong track record)....I don't think Eraserhead is wrong here.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2014, 04:16:45 pm »

21 point lead with early voting, yet down by 4? Colour me skeptical.

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

R-friendly as in what? Showing Republicans ahead?
As in showing the Pubs ahead by more than say PPP or SurveyUSA (to name two polls with a very strong track record)....I don't think Eraserhead is wrong here.

I wasn't doubting Eraser, I just didn't know Quinnipiac was R friendly.
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KCDem
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2014, 04:22:45 pm »

Haha what a joke poll. Quinnijunk "University" will get a good thrashing next Tuesday!
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Joshua
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2014, 04:52:23 pm »

Haha what a joke poll. Quinnijunk "University" will get a good thrashing next Tuesday!

Quoting this not for its truth, but because people just need to read the word "Quinnijunk" one more time.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2014, 08:02:28 pm »

21 point lead with early voting, yet down by 4? Colour me skeptical.

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

R-friendly as in what? Showing Republicans ahead?
As in showing the Pubs ahead by more than say PPP or SurveyUSA (to name two polls with a very strong track record)....I don't think Eraserhead is wrong here.

I wasn't doubting Eraser, I just didn't know Quinnipiac was R friendly.

They have been this cycle at least. That doesn't necessarily mean that they're wrong. They're generally a pretty solid pollster (one of the very few university pollsters worth a damn in fact).
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2014, 09:41:52 pm »

Snip snip snip.

538 had this guy as a 75% favorite not too long ago. Thanks Barry!

538 had Roberts at 99% not too long ago.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2014, 09:50:09 pm »

Can we just accept that Buck Brinkley is done?
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