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  WI: Final Marquette poll out today!
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Author Topic: WI: Final Marquette poll out today!  (Read 7416 times)
Marston
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« on: October 29, 2014, 06:36:43 am »

Supposed to be released later today! Last one had Walker and. Burke tied at 47% apiece.
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morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 06:45:29 am »

Bring it on!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 07:03:52 am »

Going to guess Walker +1.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 08:07:01 am »

Going to guess Walker +1.
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Flake
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 08:34:11 am »

Guessing Burke+1 but wouldn't be surprised if either side had a lead of up to five points.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 08:56:16 am »

Predict that Walker and Burke will get most of the votes.
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backtored
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2014, 09:53:32 am »

Burke will be up 49-48.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2014, 12:21:05 pm »

Walker up 50/43 with LVs.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 12:22:43 pm »

Booyah!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 12:23:25 pm »

I find this very hard to believe. We'll see what PPP says here.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2014, 12:24:12 pm »

The glorious union buster Scott Walker, champion of the people, is rising up to deliver another big thrashing.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2014, 12:24:48 pm »

Walker up 46/45 with RVs.

That difference is massive.

I find this very hard to believe. We'll see what PPP says here.

Agreed.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2014, 12:25:01 pm »

I find this very hard to believe. We'll see what PPP says here.

Ah, yes, the people who said Barrett would win the recall.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2014, 12:26:42 pm »

Absolutely no one is acting like Walker is up 7% here. I think Marquette's likely voter screen is very off.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2014, 12:27:10 pm »

What could've caused this much swing in the past week?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2014, 12:27:37 pm »

The glorious union buster Scott Walker, champion of the people, is rising up to deliver another big thrashing.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2014, 12:29:02 pm »

Absolutely no one is acting like Walker is up 7% here. I think Marquette's likely voter screen is very off.

This even goes against all the behind the scenes stuff that has been coming out over the past week.
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2014, 12:35:40 pm »

Walker wouldnt be begging for money if he was up 7, up 1-2 is certainly plausible.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2014, 12:36:44 pm »

Dominating! He will win by 3.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2014, 12:38:36 pm »

Absolutely no one is acting like Walker is up 7% here. I think Marquette's likely voter screen is very off.

This even goes against all the behind the scenes stuff that has been coming out over the past week.

Unfortunately, true or not, this could provide Walker the momentum he needs to make it over the finish line.
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2014, 12:44:25 pm »

No undecided voter gives a **** about these polls. The only ones who do are partisans who decided long ago like us.
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porky88
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2014, 12:44:53 pm »

Probably an outlier. Even good pollsters get them from time to time. My guess is Walker is winning, but the margin will be closer than his recall victory.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2014, 01:02:50 pm »

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2014, 01:03:06 pm »

No undecided voter gives a **** about these polls. The only ones who do are partisans who decided long ago like us.

I'm not saying it will convince undecideds. But it's going to get a lot of positive coverage for Walker. "Walker way ahead! Walker on track for re-election!" etc. which may depress Dem turnout a bit/increase Rep turnout a bit. It's not going to be a huge difference of course, but in a race that will be decided by a knife's edge it could matter.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2014, 01:08:01 pm »

No undecided voter gives a **** about these polls. The only ones who do are partisans who decided long ago like us.

I'm not saying it will convince undecideds. But it's going to get a lot of positive coverage for Walker. "Walker way ahead! Walker on track for re-election!" etc. which may depress Dem turnout a bit/increase Rep turnout a bit. It's not going to be a huge difference of course, but in a race that will be decided by a knife's edge it could matter.

Definitely. That's why campaigns will occasionally leak internal polling that shows them in a dead heat or up by 1 when public polling is showing them falling behind: the supporters on the ground  demand a reason to believe they have a chance in order to keep them willing to go out and volunteer and vote.
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