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Author Topic: WI: Final Marquette poll out today!  (Read 7154 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2014, 01:11:10 pm »

Quote
Stephen Wolf
‏@StephenWolfUNC

Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 01:20:24 pm by Gass3268 »Logged

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2014, 01:24:10 pm »

Damn, that is a bummer. Gotta flip it back over to Walker...
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2014, 01:24:24 pm »

Quote
Stephen Wolf
‏@StephenWolfUNC

Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!

Wait, really? Were their polls always like this, or just this one?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2014, 01:31:58 pm »

Quote
Stephen Wolf
‏@StephenWolfUNC

Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!

Wait, really? Were their polls always like this, or just this one?

I think they were always this way.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2014, 01:33:57 pm »

Quote
Stephen Wolf
‏@StephenWolfUNC

Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!

Wait, really? Were their polls always like this, or just this one?

I think they were always this way.

It's odd their results would be so accurate then. That seems extremely strict.
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2014, 01:39:50 pm »

Guys, just prepare yourselves for a Walker win now. You can be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2014, 01:44:32 pm »

Guys, just prepare yourselves for a Walker win now. You can be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.

That's what I was doing, until the past few weeks when the polls all of a sudden made a surge toward Burke, got my hopes up. Now it looks like its going back to the way I thought it would be. Damn polls!
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« Reply #32 on: October 29, 2014, 02:21:03 pm »

This is probably a bit of an outlier, but I still didn't expected the plagiarism and Burke's rather vague political slogans to get her in the lead.

Quote
Stephen Wolf
‏@StephenWolfUNC

Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!

Wait, really? Were their polls always like this, or just this one?

I think they were always this way.

It's odd their results would be so accurate then. That seems extremely strict.

People are unenthusiastic this election cycle. People who are uncertain whether they will vote or not are likely not going to vote, so I commend Marquette in this regard.
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marty
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« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2014, 02:26:28 pm »

Obama effect, he went to Wisconsin early this week to campaign.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2014, 02:27:35 pm »

Obama effect, he went to Wisconsin early this week to campaign.

He went to Wisconsin last night, two days after this poll had finished interviewing people.
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« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2014, 02:49:32 pm »

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6


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mypalfish
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2014, 02:50:03 pm »

MU Law poll really tries to nail down the likely voter screen in it's final poll.  

The internals are a really bad for Burke.   She's underwater even among RV's in favorability, while Walker does pretty well.

Walker's job approval is above 50%, too (even among RV's).

I certainly didn't expect this margin, but I was told by someone very, very "in the know" from the Gov's side that they were winning and were tracking a decent margin for a while (I thought it was spin due to the ad disparity).  They leaked out a + 2 number to some people, but that was using the most favorable turnout model for the Dems.  Walker's team spends a ton on polling, and they have a really good lay of the land here.

There was a lot of concern from GOP'ers since Walker even went dark in TV ads for a while on Monday, but I guess it was more from confidence that they could save up for final push.

Saw Mary Burke at the UW game on Sat walking through Union South and you could tell she wasn't a real natural campaigner.  She only went up to the girl working the help desk and shook her hand while ignoring the hundred or so people in the lobby, and that was only after her handler directed her to.  
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2014, 02:53:35 pm »

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6

Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2014, 02:56:25 pm »

RIP Burke
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2014, 03:06:02 pm »

MULawPoll @MULawPoll  ∑  2h 2 hours ago
Among likely voters, itís 51% fav, 46% unfav for Walker. Most recent polls were 52-46, 52-46, and 50-48. #mulawpoll

 MULawPoll @MULawPoll  ∑  2h 2 hours ago
Walkerís favorable rating is 48%, unfav 47% among registered in new poll. Three most polls were: 49-45, 47-47, 48-48. #mulawpoll

 MULawPoll @MULawPoll  ∑  2h 2 hours ago
Among likely voters, 39% fav, 49% unfav on Burke, compared to three most recent polls of 41-39, 40-44, and 44-44. #mulawpoll

 MULawPoll @MULawPoll  ∑  2h 2 hours ago
38% of registered view Burke favorably, 45% unfavorable. In recent polls, that was 36-35, 36-37, and 40-43. #mulawpoll
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krazen1211
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2014, 03:08:56 pm »

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6



Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2014, 03:14:26 pm »

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6



Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

lol

By the way, how do you feel that a white liberal will be your governor in a couple months?
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Miles
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« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2014, 03:14:40 pm »

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

I noticed at RRH you just said this was a great poll and that was it. How come you didn't bring up PPP over there?
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2014, 03:21:37 pm »

And yet Hillary would beat Scotty by at least 3 here in '16. Oh well...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2014, 04:41:20 pm »

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

I noticed at RRH you just said this was a great poll and that was it. How come you didn't bring up PPP over there?

Read the thread. Someone else here posted that we should toss aside a gold star Marquette poll in favor of an inferior product.
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2014, 04:45:23 pm »

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

I noticed at RRH you just said this was a great poll and that was it. How come you didn't bring up PPP over there?

Read the thread. Someone else here posted that we should toss aside a gold star Marquette poll in favor of an inferior product.

Gold Star Marquette is going to take...oh forget it...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2014, 04:47:57 pm »

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6



Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

lol

By the way, how do you feel that a white liberal will be your governor in a couple months?

I am thankful that our state Constitution prevents Tom Wolf from engaging in too much mischief.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #47 on: October 29, 2014, 05:10:30 pm »

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6



Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

lol

By the way, how do you feel that a white liberal will be your governor in a couple months?

I am thankful that our state Constitution prevents Tom Wolf from engaging in too much mischief.

Well, I'll give you some credit for accepting the inevitable at least.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2014, 05:29:19 am »

New Poll: Wisconsin Governor by Marquette Law School on 2014-10-26

Summary: D: 43%, R: 50%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2014, 09:33:35 am »

Great news!!! Smiley
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