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Author Topic: WI: Final Marquette poll out today!  (Read 7157 times)
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #50 on: October 30, 2014, 10:50:57 am »

Walker's cruel reign over Madison will continue thanks to Republican mobilization in Milwaukee's backwards suburbs. Free the City of Lakes, let them join us in Illinois!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2014, 06:54:32 pm »

Walker's cruel reign over Madison will continue thanks to Republican mobilization in Milwaukee's backwards suburbs. Free the City of Lakes, let them join us in Illinois!

Well thanks. I've heard the area I live in, from here and many other blogs, called everything from racist to insane. Such manners you D's have!
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KCDem
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« Reply #52 on: October 30, 2014, 06:55:49 pm »

Anyone who believes this poll needs to have their marbles polished.
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« Reply #53 on: October 30, 2014, 07:09:25 pm »

This could be the end of Marquette
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #54 on: October 30, 2014, 07:28:54 pm »

Alright... seriously... does anyone actually believe that Walker is up by that much? Ahead, sure... but by 7%?
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« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2014, 08:53:20 pm »

This could be the end of Marquette

Yup. Which is okay. It's boring to have a poll that is always accurate. Takes the mystery out of it.
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2014, 09:25:02 pm »

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

Personally, I think that Obama's visits have hurt the candidates that been the presumed benefactors of those visits.  It extends to Biden as well.  When he visits, the intended benefactor doesn't receive any benefit from it and it actually hurts the candidate they support.

In NY-24, Dan Maffei went from a 8-point advantage over John Katko to a 10-point deficit in the poll released immediately after Biden's visit.

In the Wisconsin governor's contest, Obama visits to support Mary Burke and immediately afterward the polling shows Walker with a large spike in support.

Earlier, it happened in Maryland.  Obama had gone to lend support to Anthony Brown.  Immediately after the visit, Larry Hogan had a surge in the polls.  Hillary Clinton was just there in support of Brown and I expect that Hogan could see another bounce in the polls.
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anarchy2day
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« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2014, 09:31:41 pm »

Guys, just prepare yourselves for a Walker win now. You can be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.

Prepare myself?  I fully expect for it to happen and I'll be ecstatic for it!  Scott Walker has been nothing short of fantastic for Wisconsin.  I wish we had a governor here in New York like him.  Sorry, it isn't your guy, Eraserhead.  It ain't the guy occupying it now either.

Do you think that Cuomo will survive the Moreland Commission scandal?  For the sake of New York's future, I hope not.
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anarchy2day
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« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2014, 09:33:20 pm »

Obama effect, he went to Wisconsin early this week to campaign.

Exactly!  Nice to see some Frederic Bastiat too!  Kudos!
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anarchy2day
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« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2014, 09:42:30 pm »

Alright... seriously... does anyone actually believe that Walker is up by that much? Ahead, sure... but by 7%?

Yes.  I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being by more than 7-points when it's all over.

Love me some Tony Abbott!  Can we trade you Obama for him?  We'll throw in Biden & Hillary for Julie Bishop! 
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2014, 10:08:39 pm »

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

Personally, I think that Obama's visits have hurt the candidates that been the presumed benefactors of those visits.  It extends to Biden as well.  When he visits, the intended benefactor doesn't receive any benefit from it and it actually hurts the candidate they support.

In NY-24, Dan Maffei went from a 8-point advantage over John Katko to a 10-point deficit in the poll released immediately after Biden's visit.

In the Wisconsin governor's contest, Obama visits to support Mary Burke and immediately afterward the polling shows Walker with a large spike in support.

Earlier, it happened in Maryland.  Obama had gone to lend support to Anthony Brown.  Immediately after the visit, Larry Hogan had a surge in the polls.  Hillary Clinton was just there in support of Brown and I expect that Hogan could see another bounce in the polls.

Uh, no. This poll was conducted before Obama campaigned with Burke, so nice try. LOL if you think Hillary Clinton is unpopular in Maryland when she has a 50-42 favorability rating nationally.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2014, 10:32:37 pm »

Alright... seriously... does anyone actually believe that Walker is up by that much? Ahead, sure... but by 7%?

Yes.  I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being by more than 7-points when it's all over.

Love me some Tony Abbott!  Can we trade you Obama for him?  We'll throw in Biden & Hillary for Julie Bishop! 

Get help.
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« Reply #62 on: October 31, 2014, 06:57:57 am »

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

Personally, I think that Obama's visits have hurt the candidates that been the presumed benefactors of those visits.  It extends to Biden as well.  When he visits, the intended benefactor doesn't receive any benefit from it and it actually hurts the candidate they support.

In NY-24, Dan Maffei went from a 8-point advantage over John Katko to a 10-point deficit in the poll released immediately after Biden's visit.

In the Wisconsin governor's contest, Obama visits to support Mary Burke and immediately afterward the polling shows Walker with a large spike in support.

Earlier, it happened in Maryland.  Obama had gone to lend support to Anthony Brown.  Immediately after the visit, Larry Hogan had a surge in the polls.  Hillary Clinton was just there in support of Brown and I expect that Hogan could see another bounce in the polls.

Uh, no. This poll was conducted before Obama campaigned with Burke, so nice try. LOL if you think Hillary Clinton is unpopular in Maryland when she has a 50-42 favorability rating nationally.

Okay.  Whatever you say.  She is linked at the hip to Obama.  That's why her numbers are going down.  It's why Democrats across the board are going down.  Voters are really just beginning to tune into the election results.

Frankly, I think that voters are turned off by the process anymore, which is why there is the late surge across the country for non-Democratic candidates.  Democrats are effectively being tied to Obama.  It doesn't matter if it's Maryland, Wisconsin, Florida or Wyoming.  A vote for a Democrat is a vote for Obama.

It's going to be the same headwind that the Democratic candidate for president faces in 2 years.  Ties to Obama.  It won't matter if it's Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or anyone else.  They're going to be tied to eight unmitigated years of disastrous policies.
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anarchy2day
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« Reply #63 on: October 31, 2014, 06:58:51 am »

Alright... seriously... does anyone actually believe that Walker is up by that much? Ahead, sure... but by 7%?

Yes.  I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being by more than 7-points when it's all over.

Love me some Tony Abbott!  Can we trade you Obama for him?  We'll throw in Biden & Hillary for Julie Bishop! 

Get help.

I'm trying.  Abbott for Obama.  Come on!  Smiley
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #64 on: October 31, 2014, 02:04:51 pm »

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

Personally, I think that Obama's visits have hurt the candidates that been the presumed benefactors of those visits.  It extends to Biden as well.  When he visits, the intended benefactor doesn't receive any benefit from it and it actually hurts the candidate they support.

In NY-24, Dan Maffei went from a 8-point advantage over John Katko to a 10-point deficit in the poll released immediately after Biden's visit.

In the Wisconsin governor's contest, Obama visits to support Mary Burke and immediately afterward the polling shows Walker with a large spike in support.

Earlier, it happened in Maryland.  Obama had gone to lend support to Anthony Brown.  Immediately after the visit, Larry Hogan had a surge in the polls.  Hillary Clinton was just there in support of Brown and I expect that Hogan could see another bounce in the polls.

Uh, no. This poll was conducted before Obama campaigned with Burke, so nice try. LOL if you think Hillary Clinton is unpopular in Maryland when she has a 50-42 favorability rating nationally.

Okay.  Whatever you say.  She is linked at the hip to Obama.  That's why her numbers are going down.  It's why Democrats across the board are going down.  Voters are really just beginning to tune into the election results.

Frankly, I think that voters are turned off by the process anymore, which is why there is the late surge across the country for non-Democratic candidates.  Democrats are effectively being tied to Obama.  It doesn't matter if it's Maryland, Wisconsin, Florida or Wyoming.  A vote for a Democrat is a vote for Obama.

It's going to be the same headwind that the Democratic candidate for president faces in 2 years.  Ties to Obama.  It won't matter if it's Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or anyone else.  They're going to be tied to eight unmitigated years of disastrous policies.

Logically, if Hillary is at 50-42 nationally, that means she's cracking 60% in Maryland. And it's not "whatever I say". It's factually true that this poll's field dates were before Obama campaigned for Burke.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #65 on: November 05, 2014, 12:04:22 am »

Quote
Stephen Wolf
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Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!

What a stupid fellow!

Walker 53
Burke 46
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #66 on: November 05, 2014, 06:07:16 pm »

Quote
Stephen Wolf
‏@StephenWolfUNC

Marquette's WI record is good but their LV seems too tight; excludes self-described "very likely" voters, only includes "absolutely certain"

That's crazy!

What a stupid fellow!

Walker 53
Burke 46

It rounds to 52-47 actually.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #67 on: November 05, 2014, 06:11:39 pm »

All hail Marquette and Selzer! They have brass balls for going against the consensus and being correct.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #68 on: November 14, 2014, 06:21:00 am »

Question for all: Why was this race given more attention than any other race, despite Snyder, Scott, and others ending up winning by a lot less?
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« Reply #69 on: November 14, 2014, 06:30:47 am »

Question for all: Why was this race given more attention than any other race, despite Snyder, Scott, and others ending up winning by a lot less?

Uh, because Scott Walker is a lot more controversial, known and a possible presidential candidate while Rob Snyder and Rick Scott are people only political junkies care about.
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« Reply #70 on: November 17, 2014, 11:12:02 pm »

Anyone who believes this poll needs to have their marbles polished.
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2014 Predictions
Senate Misses: NC
Governor Misses: CO, KS, IL, FL, MD
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