WI: Final Marquette poll out today!

[IceSpear]

What could've caused this much swing in the past week?

[IceSpear]

Absolutely no one is acting like Walker is up 7% here. I think Marquette's likely voter screen is very off.

This even goes against all the behind the scenes stuff that has been coming out over the past week.

Unfortunately, true or not, this could provide Walker the momentum he needs to make it over the finish line.

[IceSpear]

No undecided voter gives a **** about these polls. The only ones who do are partisans who decided long ago like us.

I'm not saying it will convince undecideds. But it's going to get a lot of positive coverage for Walker. "Walker way ahead! Walker on track for re-election!" etc. which may depress Dem turnout a bit/increase Rep turnout a bit. It's not going to be a huge difference of course, but in a race that will be decided by a knife's edge it could matter.

[IceSpear]

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That's crazy!

Wait, really? Were their polls always like this, or just this one?

[IceSpear]

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That's crazy!

Wait, really? Were their polls always like this, or just this one?

I think they were always this way.

It's odd their results would be so accurate then. That seems extremely strict.

[IceSpear]

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6

Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

[IceSpear]

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6

Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

lol

By the way, how do you feel that a white liberal will be your governor in a couple months?

[IceSpear]

Spot the good poll!

PPP (D)   6/2 - 6/3   1226 LV   50   47   Walker +3
Marquette University   5/23 - 5/26   600 LV   52   45   Walker +7


PP (D)   2/23 - 2/26   900 RV   46   49   Barrett +3
Marquette University   1/19 - 1/22   701 RV   50   44   Walker +6

Do you know how to read dates? Those polls are literally months apart.

Just goes to show you that 1 pollster was right at the beginning, and the end too. I don't think you spotted the good poll, though.

lol

By the way, how do you feel that a white liberal will be your governor in a couple months?

I am thankful that our state Constitution prevents Tom Wolf from engaging in too much mischief.

Well, I'll give you some credit for accepting the inevitable at least.

[IceSpear]

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

Personally, I think that Obama's visits have hurt the candidates that been the presumed benefactors of those visits.  It extends to Biden as well.  When he visits, the intended benefactor doesn't receive any benefit from it and it actually hurts the candidate they support.

In NY-24, Dan Maffei went from a 8-point advantage over John Katko to a 10-point deficit in the poll released immediately after Biden's visit.

In the Wisconsin governor's contest, Obama visits to support Mary Burke and immediately afterward the polling shows Walker with a large spike in support.

Earlier, it happened in Maryland.  Obama had gone to lend support to Anthony Brown.  Immediately after the visit, Larry Hogan had a surge in the polls.  Hillary Clinton was just there in support of Brown and I expect that Hogan could see another bounce in the polls.

Uh, no. This poll was conducted before Obama campaigned with Burke, so nice try. LOL if you think Hillary Clinton is unpopular in Maryland when she has a 50-42 favorability rating nationally.

[IceSpear]

There is always some statistical noise in polls. When a new poll comes out with a huge swing from the last poll and nothing happened between the two that would cause a dramatic shift in public opinion, I tend to be skeptical of the new result, the previous result, or both. If it seems too good to be true it probably is.

On the whole, the bulk of the recent Wisconsin polling has shown Walker ahead. Polls have been wrong before and they can again, but I do think Walker will end up winning because the bulk of the polling has shown him ahead. I do not think he will win by 7 but again stranger things have happened.

Personally, I think that Obama's visits have hurt the candidates that been the presumed benefactors of those visits.  It extends to Biden as well.  When he visits, the intended benefactor doesn't receive any benefit from it and it actually hurts the candidate they support.

In NY-24, Dan Maffei went from a 8-point advantage over John Katko to a 10-point deficit in the poll released immediately after Biden's visit.

In the Wisconsin governor's contest, Obama visits to support Mary Burke and immediately afterward the polling shows Walker with a large spike in support.

Earlier, it happened in Maryland.  Obama had gone to lend support to Anthony Brown.  Immediately after the visit, Larry Hogan had a surge in the polls.  Hillary Clinton was just there in support of Brown and I expect that Hogan could see another bounce in the polls.

Uh, no. This poll was conducted before Obama campaigned with Burke, so nice try. LOL if you think Hillary Clinton is unpopular in Maryland when she has a 50-42 favorability rating nationally.

Okay.  Whatever you say.  She is linked at the hip to Obama.  That's why her numbers are going down.  It's why Democrats across the board are going down.  Voters are really just beginning to tune into the election results.

Frankly, I think that voters are turned off by the process anymore, which is why there is the late surge across the country for non-Democratic candidates.  Democrats are effectively being tied to Obama.  It doesn't matter if it's Maryland, Wisconsin, Florida or Wyoming.  A vote for a Democrat is a vote for Obama.

It's going to be the same headwind that the Democratic candidate for president faces in 2 years.  Ties to Obama.  It won't matter if it's Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or anyone else.  They're going to be tied to eight unmitigated years of disastrous policies.

Logically, if Hillary is at 50-42 nationally, that means she's cracking 60% in Maryland. And it's not "whatever I say". It's factually true that this poll's field dates were before Obama campaigned for Burke.

[IceSpear]

All hail Marquette and Selzer! They have brass balls for going against the consensus and being correct.