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Author Topic: NY 18: Global Strategy Group (D): Maloney leading  (Read 853 times)
Marston
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« on: October 29, 2014, 07:36:49 am »

Maloney: 46%
Hayworth: 40%

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2014/10/internal-poll-shows-maloney-up-6-in-ny-18/
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 09:26:33 am »

Things don't look good for the Dems in NY. They run the risk of losing 4 congressional seats in NY: NY-01, NY-18, NY-21, and yes, now NY-24.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 10:49:34 am »


For the sake of accuracy, it looks like there were two Global Strategies Polls conducted for both candidates.

Hayworth's internal was 42% R-42$ D-3% I with approximately 13% Undecided.
400 voters, conducted Oct. 23-25. MOE +/- 4.9%

Siena will be releasing a poll shortly.

If you cut the baby in two when it comes to these two internals, it looks like a slight lead for Maloney.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 11:51:50 am »

Yeah, this one is going to be close. Maloney has a slight edge though. I kind of wish I was voting in this district instead of NY-19.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 12:15:41 pm »

Yeah, this one is going to be close. Maloney has a slight edge though. I kind of wish I was voting in this district instead of NY-19.

Met Sean Eldridge and his billionaire husband Chris, with whom I sat. Nice guy, and both are gorgeous. Sean has developed a good stump speech, well crafted, but is still superficial on the issues, and when I asked him what issue he really cared about, and would focus on if elected, where there was an unmet need (warning him that I always asked that kind of questions, and most politicians did not do well with it), he said campaign finance reform. I said well the Supreme Court has taken that out of the hands of Congress, so you can't do anything with that. Anything else?  He then said tax incentives for small business, but was vague. I said, oh you would be some techocrat type, focuses on the lucunae of the tax code. So anyway, you can see at the moment, he is more of a talking points kind of guy. But if he puts roots down in the community, and the Dems have a good year in 2016, when the electorate is more Democratic, and Gibson casts some more tough votes, he might be in the hunt. This year he will lose by a 10 to 15 point margin.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 01:33:01 pm »

Yeah, this one is going to be close. Maloney has a slight edge though. I kind of wish I was voting in this district instead of NY-19.

Met Sean Eldridge and his billionaire husband Chris, with whom I sat. Nice guy, and both are gorgeous. Sean has developed a good stump speech, well crafted, but is still superficial on the issues, and when I asked him what issue he really cared about, and would focus on if elected, where there was an unmet need (warning him that I always asked that kind of questions, and most politicians did not do well with it), he said campaign finance reform. I said well the Supreme Court has taken that out of the hands of Congress, so you can't do anything with that. Anything else?  He then said tax incentives for small business, but was vague. I said, oh you would be some techocrat type, focuses on the lucunae of the tax code. So anyway, you can see at the moment, he is more of a talking points kind of guy. But if he puts roots down in the community, and the Dems have a good year in 2016, when the electorate is more Democratic, and Gibson casts some more tough votes, he might be in the hunt. This year he will lose by a 10 to 15 point margin.

Agreed. He's still a kid. He'll probably lose by at least 15.
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