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  MI: EPIC/MRA: Peters demolishing Land
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Author Topic: MI: EPIC/MRA: Peters demolishing Land  (Read 1191 times)
Marston
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« on: October 29, 2014, 05:11:45 pm »

Peters: 50%
Land: 35%

What an unmitigated disaster.

http://www.wxyz.com/news/political/exclusive-poll-michigan-governors-race-between-snyder-and-schauer-is-too-close-to-call
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 05:15:03 pm »

Why has this state been polled so excessively? I literally log on here every day and there is a new michigan poll, yet I have to wait a week in between polls out of Colorado, Iowa,  NC, etc.

This is such horse sh**t.

We don't need ten daily michigan polls showing us what we all knew anyway.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 05:17:04 pm »

Where's Oldies?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 05:17:40 pm »

Why has this state been polled so excessively? I literally log on here every day and there is a new michigan poll, yet I have to wait a week in between polls out of Colorado, Iowa,  NC, etc.

This is such horse sh**t.

We don't need ten daily michigan polls showing us what we all knew anyway.

Michigan has quite a lot of local pollsters that seem to prioritize quantity over quality.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 05:18:15 pm »

There are like fifteen Michigan polling firms that only poll Michigan and are garbage, and they keep releasing their garbage polls over and over again.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 05:18:37 pm »

I agree with boshembechle. We also get way too many polls from Georgia, but at least that race is competitive.
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Marston
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2014, 05:19:05 pm »

Plus, you know, there's a really competitive governors race here, too.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2014, 05:53:27 pm »

There are like fifteen Michigan polling firms that only poll Michigan and are garbage, and they keep releasing their garbage polls over and over again.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 08:58:05 pm »

No Landslide.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 09:15:54 pm »

We knew this race was Safe D long ago.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2014, 10:12:09 pm »

This race is truly the republicans biggest embarrassment of the year. There are only two races that I currently have at Safe that have ever spent a day in my toss-up column. The first is Ohio Governor, which was/is a huge fail for democrats, and the other is this race......

And it's not just me..Nate Silver had Land at a 45% chance of victory in March..Sabato had this at only Leans D from the moment of Levin's retirement until this past August.

If Land had ran a good campaign, we would have a far more competitive race. Instead, she's run an absolutely terrible campaign, and a serious possibility of the race being called for Peters right at poll closing time is the punishment she'll have to endure.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 05:57:02 am »

New Poll: Michigan Senator by EPIC/MRA on 2014-10-28

Summary: D: 50%, R: 35%, I: 5%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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DS0816
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 06:18:48 am »

Looking at the gubernatorial and presidential cast votes, from 2010 and 2012, in the state of Michigan…there appears to be between 30 to 35 percent difference in participation.

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_gubernatorial_election,_2010#Results_3 and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan,_2012#Results Sad

2010 Michigan Governor votes: 3,226,088.
2012 Michigan U.S. President votes: 4,730,961.

Comparing 2010 to 2012: 68.19 percent (2010 vs. 2012 participation); or a difference of 31.81 percent (who did not participate in 2010 but did so in 2012).

If these same [2010] numbers of votes are cast for statewide-level races, in 2014 Michigan, then every 32,000 raw votes (that's an estimate) would account for carriage by a one full percentage point.

According to that poll, Democratic U.S. senatorial nominee Gary Peters would defeat Republican challenger Terri Lynn Land by around 480,000 raw votes.
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DS0816
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 06:42:44 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 06:50:56 am by DS0816 »

This race is truly the republicans biggest embarrassment of the year. There are only two races that I currently have at Safe that have ever spent a day in my toss-up column. The first is Ohio Governor, which was/is a huge fail for democrats, and the other is this race......

And it's not just me..Nate Silver had Land at a 45% chance of victory in March..Sabato had this at only Leans D from the moment of Levin's retirement until this past August.

If Land had ran a good campaign, we would have a far more competitive race. Instead, she's run an absolutely terrible campaign, and a serious possibility of the race being called for Peters right at poll closing time is the punishment she'll have to endure.

With what you mentioned, I would ask you just to keep in mind that Michigan hasn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since the Republicans had their "Republican Revolution" in 1994. And that Republican pickup winner, Spencer Abraham, became unseated in 2000 by Michigan's junior U.S. senator, Debbie Stabenow (the first woman in the history of the state elected to the U.S. Senate; she won re-elections by even better margins in 2006 and 2012).

Abraham went on to become U.S. Secretary of Energy during the first term of Republican President George W. Bush. But, most interesting, is that Abraham's unseating came in a presidential election year that resulted in a Republican pickup of the White House. (A comparison is that Rick Santorum, also first elected in the midterm congressional wave of 1994, won re-election from Pennsylvania while Al Gore carried it with Election 2000.) In 2000 Michigan, Democratic presidential support was reduced by around 8 percentage points, and Republican senatorial support was reduced by about 10 percentage points.

There are some states—say, for example, which carried for 1976's incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford and 2004's losing Democratic challenger John Kerry—which haven't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in a long time. Connecticut (not since 1982) and New Jersey (not since 1972) are strong examples of this. The Republican wave election catapulted their victory for the U.S. Senate seat in 1994 Michigan. Before that, it was with Robert P. Griffin's re-election in 1972, when Richard Nixon was re-elected the 37th president and won over Michigan among his 17 pickup states (after carriage of 32 from 1968). Griffin, who also a former Senate Minority Whip, ended up unseated by the soon-to-retire Carl Levin in 1978, the midterm year of 39th president Jimmy Carter's sole term in which the Democrats had a loss in seats with both houses of Congress and, yet, won a U.S. Senate pickup in Michigan.

Since Carl Levin, who is now 80, announced in 2013 that he would not seek re-election as the senior U.S. senator from Michigan, I expected the Democrats would hold this seat. And that is the case even if 2014 turns out to be a wave of a midterm.

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dmmidmi
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 06:53:13 am »

This race is truly the republicans biggest embarrassment of the year. There are only two races that I currently have at Safe that have ever spent a day in my toss-up column. The first is Ohio Governor, which was/is a huge fail for democrats, and the other is this race......

And it's not just me..Nate Silver had Land at a 45% chance of victory in March..Sabato had this at only Leans D from the moment of Levin's retirement until this past August.

If Land had ran a good campaign, we would have a far more competitive race. Instead, she's run an absolutely terrible campaign, and a serious possibility of the race being called for Peters right at poll closing time is the punishment she'll have to endure.

Sometimes, Nate Silver gets it wrong.

Months ago, I described how Secretary of State was not an appropriate launching pad for a political career in Michigan. Candace Miller notwithstanding (she's a US House member in what is by all accounts a safe GOP district), the last Secretary of State to move on to either the Governor's office or the US Senate was in the 1950s. Richard Austin failed in his Senate bid in 1976.

Additionally, Michigan politicians rarely leave office, only to make a comeback later on--unless you're an Attorney General, once you're done with office, you're done. Popular former Governor Soapy Williams failed in his bid to win a Senate race once his time as Governor was done. Jim Blanchard got smoked in his bid for the Governorship in 2002. The list goes on and on.

Now, I've lived here my whole life, and I repeatedly told everybody that Terri Lynn Land was a lightweight, and that winning a SOS race is akin to winning a race for dogcatcher, and shouldn't be considered undisputable proof that Terri Lynn Land is a skilled campaigner or politician. Some of the Republican posters here wouldn't have any of it. I was right. They were wrong.

By the way, where's the person from Illinois who said that Gary Peters' absolute maximum margin of victory ceiling was 8%? I want to hear them tell me more about that.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 07:18:01 am »

There are like fifteen Michigan polling firms that only poll Michigan and are garbage, and they keep releasing their garbage polls over and over again.
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