This race is truly the republicans biggest embarrassment of the year. There are only two races that I currently have at Safe that have ever spent a day in my toss-up column. The first is Ohio Governor, which was/is a huge fail for democrats, and the other is this race......
And it's not just me..Nate Silver had Land at a 45% chance of victory in March..Sabato had this at only Leans D from the moment of Levin's retirement until this past August.
If Land had ran a good campaign, we would have a far more competitive race. Instead, she's run an absolutely terrible campaign, and a serious possibility of the race being called for Peters right at poll closing time is the punishment she'll have to endure.
Sometimes, Nate Silver gets it wrong.
Months ago, I described how Secretary of State was not an appropriate launching pad for a political career in Michigan. Candace Miller notwithstanding (she's a US House member in what is by all accounts a safe GOP district), the last Secretary of State to move on to either the Governor's office or the US Senate was in the 1950s. Richard Austin failed in his Senate bid in 1976.
Additionally, Michigan politicians rarely leave office, only to make a comeback later on--unless you're an Attorney General, once you're done with office, you're done. Popular former Governor Soapy Williams failed in his bid to win a Senate race once his time as Governor was done. Jim Blanchard got smoked in his bid for the Governorship in 2002. The list goes on and on.
Now, I've lived here my whole life, and I repeatedly told everybody that Terri Lynn Land was a lightweight, and that winning a SOS race is akin to winning a race for dogcatcher, and shouldn't be considered undisputable proof that Terri Lynn Land is a skilled campaigner or politician. Some of the Republican posters here wouldn't have any of it. I was right. They were wrong.
By the way, where's the person from Illinois who said that Gary Peters' absolute maximum margin of victory ceiling was 8%? I want to hear them tell me more about that.
