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Author Topic: NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5  (Read 1602 times)
cinyc
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« on: October 29, 2014, 07:18:09 pm »

Stockton Poll of NJ-03:
MacArthur (R) 46%
Belgard (D) 41%
Undecided 8%

Oct. 25-28; 617 LV; MoE +/-3.9.

Stockton's last poll in mid-September found the race tied at 42.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 08:18:17 pm by cinyc »Logged
KCDem
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 07:24:17 pm »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 07:29:30 pm by KCDem »Logged
cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 08:20:12 pm »

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

Where do you see that?  It's not in Stockton's write-up.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 08:23:03 pm by cinyc »Logged
KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 08:51:50 pm »

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

Where do you see that?  It's not in Stockton's write-up.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Polling/2014%20Polling/CD3%20poll%202%20WFs-2014-1029.pdf
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njwes
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 04:24:08 pm »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.
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KCDem
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 05:41:31 pm »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 07:50:20 pm »

This is about what I would expect. It's a GOP-leaning district.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 10:28:34 pm »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

Pretty sure LoBiondo has to get numbers like that in his district for his large victories, and Runyan ran a solid few points ahead of Romney as well. South NJ has a culture of this.
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KCDem
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 10:30:47 pm »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

Pretty sure LoBiondo has to get numbers like that in his district for his large victories, and Runyan ran a solid few points ahead of Romney as well. South NJ has a culture of this.

LoBiondo is a well-known and respected incumbent. McArthur is an unknown.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 10:37:36 pm »

It's gerrymandered to include too many Republicans in Ocean County. If it was just contained to Burlington County, with parts of Mercer, as it should be, MacArthur wouldn't have a prayer.  But, as it stands it's not a fair map, so these are the results you get.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2014, 12:57:01 am »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

Pretty sure LoBiondo has to get numbers like that in his district for his large victories, and Runyan ran a solid few points ahead of Romney as well. South NJ has a culture of this.

LoBiondo is a well-known and respected incumbent. McArthur is an unknown.

Fair enough. We'll see who's right soon enough.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2014, 09:05:44 am »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

It's not, unfortunately.  New Jersey independents and liberals are still under some delusion that our Republicans are moderate.  On social issues and gun rights, yes, they are.  On economic matters, not so much... just as bad as any national Republican.  I was out of the loop for a while, living in Chicago and then San Diego, so apparently Jon Runyan wasn't THAT bad, but this MacArthur seems like a real bastard, with all his nonsense about "free market solutions" to problems such as equal pay for women.  What trash. 
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njwes
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2014, 03:24:14 pm »

It's not, unfortunately.  New Jersey independents and liberals are still under some delusion that our Republicans are moderate.  On social issues and gun rights, yes, they are.  On economic matters, not so much... just as bad as any national Republican.  I was out of the loop for a while, living in Chicago and then San Diego, so apparently Jon Runyan wasn't THAT bad, but this MacArthur seems like a real bastard, with all his nonsense about "free market solutions" to problems such as equal pay for women.  What trash. 

There's a lot in your post I find objectionable. But just to keep it simple: our Republicans are moderate, Garrett excepted.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2014, 05:59:44 pm »

It's not, unfortunately.  New Jersey independents and liberals are still under some delusion that our Republicans are moderate.  On social issues and gun rights, yes, they are.  On economic matters, not so much... just as bad as any national Republican.  I was out of the loop for a while, living in Chicago and then San Diego, so apparently Jon Runyan wasn't THAT bad, but this MacArthur seems like a real bastard, with all his nonsense about "free market solutions" to problems such as equal pay for women.  What trash. 

There's a lot in your post I find objectionable. But just to keep it simple: our Republicans are moderate, Garrett excepted.

Opposition to a bill that would guarantee equal pay for women is NOT moderate.  MacArthur doesn't want to take government action on any economic matters, saying we need "free market solutions" (it's mentioned 3-4 times on their mail flyer).  That's just code for "do nothing" and keep the good times going for the wealthy (his financial backers/puppetmasters).  I know you Republicans like it very much when your darling rich people get richer, but I live in the real world.  MacArthur is, on economic matters, as right wing as you will find in the Western world.  It sickens me that this piece of trash is probably going to end up representing me.  Hopefully the 2016 turnout will keep his stay in Congress brief. 
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njwes
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2014, 07:26:48 pm »

Opposition to a bill that would guarantee equal pay for women is NOT moderate.  MacArthur doesn't want to take government action on any economic matters, saying we need "free market solutions" (it's mentioned 3-4 times on their mail flyer).  That's just code for "do nothing" and keep the good times going for the wealthy (his financial backers/puppetmasters).  I know you Republicans like it very much when your darling rich people get richer, but I live in the real world.  MacArthur is, on economic matters, as right wing as you will find in the Western world.  It sickens me that this piece of trash is probably going to end up representing me.  Hopefully the 2016 turnout will keep his stay in Congress brief. 

I was more referring to your idea that NJ independents and liberals are "delusional." I grant that MacArthur will be quite conservative for NJ, and I'm surprised he was chosen. I don't think I could vote for him. Still, I wouldn't be so hateful and personal in your comments about individual politicians who haven't done anything awful--save that for Lonegan.

Also: regarding MacArthur's "financial backers/puppetmasters," he's overwhelmingly self-financed.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2014, 01:04:27 pm »

Opposition to a bill that would guarantee equal pay for women is NOT moderate.  MacArthur doesn't want to take government action on any economic matters, saying we need "free market solutions" (it's mentioned 3-4 times on their mail flyer).  That's just code for "do nothing" and keep the good times going for the wealthy (his financial backers/puppetmasters).  I know you Republicans like it very much when your darling rich people get richer, but I live in the real world.  MacArthur is, on economic matters, as right wing as you will find in the Western world.  It sickens me that this piece of trash is probably going to end up representing me.  Hopefully the 2016 turnout will keep his stay in Congress brief. 

I was more referring to your idea that NJ independents and liberals are "delusional." I grant that MacArthur will be quite conservative for NJ, and I'm surprised he was chosen. I don't think I could vote for him. Still, I wouldn't be so hateful and personal in your comments about individual politicians who haven't done anything awful--save that for Lonegan.

Also: regarding MacArthur's "financial backers/puppetmasters," he's overwhelmingly self-financed.

The GOP has earned that one, bud.
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