NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5

[KCDem]

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

[KCDem]

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

Where do you see that?  It's not in Stockton's write-up.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Polling/2014%20Polling/CD3%20poll%202%20WFs-2014-1029.pdf

[KCDem]

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

[KCDem]

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

Pretty sure LoBiondo has to get numbers like that in his district for his large victories, and Runyan ran a solid few points ahead of Romney as well. South NJ has a culture of this.

LoBiondo is a well-known and respected incumbent. McArthur is an unknown.