NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5 (user search)
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  NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ-03: Stockton Poll: MacArthur (R) +5  (Read 2239 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: October 30, 2014, 10:28:34 PM »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

Pretty sure LoBiondo has to get numbers like that in his district for his large victories, and Runyan ran a solid few points ahead of Romney as well. South NJ has a culture of this.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 12:57:01 AM »

Belgard is only winning 75% of Democrats in this poll. Throw it in the trash.

Also Booker leads by 9 in the same sample which means he is on track to deliver a good thrashing statewide. (Obama won the district by 5).

In NJ, I don't see the idea of 15 or 20% of Dems voting Republican in a House election as particularly far-fetched.

Evidence, please.

Pretty sure LoBiondo has to get numbers like that in his district for his large victories, and Runyan ran a solid few points ahead of Romney as well. South NJ has a culture of this.

LoBiondo is a well-known and respected incumbent. McArthur is an unknown.

Fair enough. We'll see who's right soon enough.
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