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  CO-PPP: TIED RACE
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Author Topic: CO-PPP: TIED RACE  (Read 7203 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 30, 2014, 11:19:12 am »

48-48

http://bit.ly/10BLOSI
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 11:20:27 am »

Here's the report.

It was for the LCV.
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backtored
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 11:20:46 am »

Well, no, it isn't really tied.  They have the gubernatorial race tied, too, which is more realistic.

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Marston
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 11:22:33 am »

What. The. Hell.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 11:23:12 am »

Well, no, it isn't really tied.  They have the gubernatorial race tied, too, which is more realistic.



I'm sorry you can't handle the truth.
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backtored
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 11:23:49 am »

Well, no, it isn't really tied.  They have the gubernatorial race tied, too, which is more realistic.



I'm sorry you can't handle the truth.

Ken Buck.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 11:24:08 am »

Gonna LOL so hard if Republicans get the football pulled away from then yet again in CO.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 11:29:16 am »

I think undecideds would lean Gardner, considering that he has so much higher favorables. We'll see though.
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 11:30:13 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 11:44:52 am by backtored »

Gonna LOL so hard if Republicans get the football pulled away from then yet again in CO.

More than half of the electorate has already voted.  These are almost exit polls at this point.

I am frankly more encouraged by the gubernatorial numbers than I am alarmed by the tie in the Senate race.  Although, to be even more frank, I think both polls are probably off.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 11:34:44 am »

Tied at this stage -- it's down to GOTV. The Republicans have gotten most of their voters out already.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 11:35:38 am »

The only poll that maters.
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backtored
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 11:35:49 am »

Democrats are like yo-yos around here.  A good Democratic poll (and it is important to note that the only polling that has had Udall even close has been either YouGov, NBCNews, or various internals and left-leaning organizational polls) and Democrats act like they've won the World Series.  A good GOP poll and they're acting like Udall should go ahead and concede right now.

Please.  This has always been a competitive race, and because of mail-in ballots and a lot of confusion about what the electorate will look like, it will be a competitive race until Tuesday night.  That said, I'm absolutely comfortable saying that Gardner will win, and he'll likely do it by more than four points.  I am not as confident about the gubernatorial race, which feels like it really could go either way.

By the way, take a look at the early vote returns.  The GOP could very well exceed their 2010 margins this year.
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backtored
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 11:36:50 am »

Tied at this stage -- it's down to GOTV. The Republicans have gotten most of their voters out already.

No, we haven't.  I assure you of that.
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marty
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 11:42:22 am »

Good god, the democratic reaction to this is absolutely pathetic. Yep, let's discount all the previous polls showing a 5 point gardner lead. Not sure if y'all notice this was done for LCV as well.

Sometimes it is so hard to get good objective info on this site because of the tinted glasses you guys wear!
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marty
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 11:43:01 am »

Jesus Christ...
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marty
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 11:43:48 am »

Tied at this stage -- it's down to GOTV. The Republicans have gotten most of their voters out already.
No, it is not tied at this stage. One poll says it, it has to be true!
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Free Bird
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 11:47:07 am »

Done for LCV. Not in RCP. Don't care
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2014, 11:48:32 am »

Is there any evidence that PPP's polls for LCV are biased?
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2014, 11:49:11 am »


PPP's other polls for the LCV look(ed) pretty believable.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2014, 11:51:20 am »

This thread demonstrates why Atlas is so horrendous in the leadup to an election.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2014, 11:52:32 am »

PPP has a superior history in polling Colorado than Quinnipiac, Suffolk or Rasmussen. 

Look at 2012:  PPP's last poll was Obama +6, he won by 5.4  Rassy and Quinnipiac's last polls had Romney's winning.  I'll take the guys who were off by .6 over the guys who were off by 8% and 6% respectively. 
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marty
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2014, 11:53:35 am »

This thread demonstrates why Atlas is so horrendous in the leadup to an election.
Suffolk shows this as a 6 point lead for Gardner, Quinnipaic shows it as 7, Rasmussen shows it at 6, yet we are to believe only this one. It's unscientific to think that way.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2014, 11:56:39 am »

This thread demonstrates why Atlas is so horrendous in the leadup to an election.
Suffolk shows this as a 6 point lead for Gardner, Quinnipaic shows it as 7, Rasmussen shows it at 6, yet we are to believe only this one. It's unscientific to think that way.

It's not necessarily scientific to just purely average the public polls, particularly in a midterm election where the polling tends to be less reliable.  I'm not going to argue that Udall is favored, but this race should be seen as a complete tossup.
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DINO Tom
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2014, 11:57:33 am »

Excellent news!
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OkThen
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2014, 11:59:47 am »

It may show a tie but even PPP is showing Udall at 42/49 fav/unfav while Gardner is at 49/45. Staying very cautiously optimistic.
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