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Author Topic: CO-SUSA: Gardner +2  (Read 3991 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 30, 2014, 12:29:00 pm »

46/44.
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 12:31:22 pm »

Seems reasonable. This race may very well have the exact same result as 2010, only it is Gardner who gets the win.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 12:33:27 pm »

It's happening folks!

Seems reasonable. This race may very well have the exact same result as 2010, only it is Gardner who gets the win.

Ummm then it's literally the opposite of the exact same result...
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OkThen
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 12:34:32 pm »

"The poll shows Udall's advantage among Latino voters is only three points." Uhh...
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marty
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 12:36:51 pm »

It's happening folks!

Seems reasonable. This race may very well have the exact same result as 2010, only it is Gardner who gets the win.

Ummm then it's literally the opposite of the exact same result...
I mean 48-46 could be the result again, except Gardner is the one who wins.
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Marston
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 12:38:27 pm »

Well, it's probably a good idea to write off Quinnipiac's results now that we have two mainstream reliable pollsters in SUSA and PPP showing something different.
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marty
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 12:39:35 pm »

SUSA had the same results when they polled the state a few weeks ago.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 12:40:09 pm »

Again, like PPP and unlike Rass and Quinnipiac, SUSA has historically been good in CO (though slightly R leaning). This race is a pure toss up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 12:49:13 pm »

Udall is closing strong.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 12:58:08 pm »

Great poll!
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marty
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 01:00:17 pm »

Not sure if you can say that about this particular poll. SUSA had the same result a few weeks ago.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 01:22:20 pm »

"The poll shows Gardner's advantage among white voters is only three points." Uhh...
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KCDem
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 01:23:31 pm »

"The poll shows Gardner's advantage among white voters is only three points." Uhh...

Glorious news! Mark Udall is on track to deliver a good thrashing!
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backtored
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 01:39:52 pm »

Well, it's probably a good idea to write off Quinnipiac's results now that we have two mainstream reliable pollsters in SUSA and PPP showing something different.

Q had a big lead because they are using an R+5 electorate. And if you look at ballot returns so far that may be a pretty good guess.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 01:51:11 pm »

Again, like PPP and unlike Rass and Quinnipiac, SUSA has historically been good in CO (though slightly R leaning). This race is a pure toss up.

Again, this is a PPP/LCV (D) poll, not a PPP non-partisan poll. The true release should come over the weekend.
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backtored
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 02:01:09 pm »

Again, like PPP and unlike Rass and Quinnipiac, SUSA has historically been good in CO (though slightly R leaning). This race is a pure toss up.

Again, this is a PPP/LCV (D) poll, not a PPP non-partisan poll. The true release should come over the weekend.

I wonder if they'll do one.

I honestly don't care much for Colorado polls this late in the game. Mail-in voting changes everything. Almost 60% of the electorate has already voted. That isn't a sample of 500 likely voters. It is 60% of actual voters. Those numbers are much more meaningful than these ostensible exit polls.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 02:05:24 pm »

Again, like PPP and unlike Rass and Quinnipiac, SUSA has historically been good in CO (though slightly R leaning). This race is a pure toss up.

Again, this is a PPP/LCV (D) poll, not a PPP non-partisan poll. The true release should come over the weekend.

I wonder if they'll do one.

I honestly don't care much for Colorado polls this late in the game. Mail-in voting changes everything. Almost 60% of the electorate has already voted. That isn't a sample of 500 likely voters. It is 60% of actual voters. Those numbers are much more meaningful than these ostensible exit polls.

They should. We're also going to get a better idea of what the electorate looks like when the SoS updates the tallies tomorrow morning. If it hovers at R+9, we know that Gardner won't be Bucked. If it erodes to R+6 or so, there may be a race.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2014, 02:07:51 pm »

Again, like PPP and unlike Rass and Quinnipiac, SUSA has historically been good in CO (though slightly R leaning). This race is a pure toss up.

Again, this is a PPP/LCV (D) poll, not a PPP non-partisan poll. The true release should come over the weekend.

I wonder if they'll do one.

I honestly don't care much for Colorado polls this late in the game. Mail-in voting changes everything. Almost 60% of the electorate has already voted. That isn't a sample of 500 likely voters. It is 60% of actual voters. Those numbers are much more meaningful than these ostensible exit polls.

I'm not sure what the distinction is? Polls in Oregon and Washington work fine, and they have similar systems.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2014, 03:15:51 pm »

I miss a republican saying "BUT... KEN BUCK! KEN BUCK!! BUCK? KEN" here.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2014, 03:43:43 pm »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Survey USA on 2014-10-29

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, I: 5%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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rob in cal
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2014, 03:52:09 pm »

57% say they've already voted, and that number sounds about right based on the ballot count that we're getting.  Of those 57%, Gardner leads 48-45.  The SUSA sample size of this "already voted" contingent is now taking on statistical relevance. I'd say a 3% lead for Gardner of those already voted matches somewhat with the GOP lead of 9% over Dems in returned ballots.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2014, 04:07:03 pm »

Splendid News!
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backtored
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2014, 04:15:32 pm »

57% say they've already voted, and that number sounds about right based on the ballot count that we're getting.  Of those 57%, Gardner leads 48-45.  The SUSA sample size of this "already voted" contingent is now taking on statistical relevance. I'd say a 3% lead for Gardner of those already voted matches somewhat with the GOP lead of 9% over Dems in returned ballots.

But the poll sample is only R+3. I tend to think that an actual electorate of R+9 would give us the Quinnipiac result of Gardner +7 and Beauprez +5. A 2010 electorate of R+6 would be Gardner +3 and Beauprez tied. And a 2012 electorate of R+2   would have Gardner tied and Hick up a handful. I think we'll end up pretty close to 2010.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2014, 05:20:27 pm »

I miss a republican saying "BUT... KEN BUCK! KEN BUCK!! BUCK? KEN" here.

...you do realize it's said to mock the Dems, right? Because that's all they could talk about for weeks when this race was tightening.

"But Ken Buck was ahead in 2010 and Ken Buck didn't win! See!"

We only started frequently using him as an excuse of a bad candidate after he Forum Dems held him up as the quintessential CO Republican from 2010 until forever.
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KCDem
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2014, 05:23:03 pm »

I miss a republican saying "BUT... KEN BUCK! KEN BUCK!! BUCK? KEN" here.

...you do realize it's said to mock the Dems, right? Because that's all they could talk about for weeks when this race was tightening.

"But Ken Buck was ahead in 2010 and Ken Buck didn't win! See!"

We only started frequently using him as an excuse of a bad candidate after he Forum Dems held him up as the quintessential CO Republican from 2010 until forever.

This meme will be vindicated on Tuesday Smiley
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