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Author Topic: MA-06: Emerson College: Close race  (Read 1374 times)
Marston
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« on: October 30, 2014, 01:53:33 pm »

Tisei: 42%
Moulton: 40%

http://patch.com/massachusetts/northandover/new-poll-tisei-holds-narrow-lead-over-moulton-final-poll-tuesdays-election?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=politics&utm_campaign=recirc&utm_content=normal
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 03:03:22 pm »

Their last MA-06 poll gave Obama a 28-63 favorability rating in the district, obviously completely impossible given his national numbers. Unfortunately, they didn't include that tidbit this time. But they do have him at 52% unfavorable statewide, which is also extremely unlikely considering he's at 54% disapproval NATIONALLY, and favorability tends to run a few points better than approval anyway.

Trash it.
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KCDem
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 05:42:05 pm »

Tisei is at 42 where he will stay on Tuesday.
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Vega
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 07:00:40 pm »

Yeah, if this was going to be the result, we should have just kept Tierney.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 07:07:07 pm »

Tisei is at 42 where he will stay on Tuesday.

Yup. The DCCC pulled out of this district for a reason, and it wasn't because Tisei is going to win in such a crushing landslide that there's no hope left.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2014, 12:30:17 pm »

The last three polls to come out on this race has shown Tisei with a slight lead.  He may very well lose at the end of the day, it's Massachusetts, but if you all actually believe this race is all but over and he has no shot at winning this seat then you're in as much denial as the Republicans were in 2006 when they scoffed at losing control of Congress despite what all the polls were saying.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/ma/massachusetts_6th_district_tisei_vs_moulton-5220.html
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2014, 01:47:03 pm »

Considering that he couldn't beat Tierney under scandal, it's doubtful that he would beat a veteran that didn't even disclose his awards.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 02:09:31 pm »

The last three polls to come out on this race has shown Tisei with a slight lead.  He may very well lose at the end of the day, it's Massachusetts, but if you all actually believe this race is all but over and he has no shot at winning this seat then you're in as much denial as the Republicans were in 2006 when they scoffed at losing control of Congress despite what all the polls were saying.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/ma/massachusetts_6th_district_tisei_vs_moulton-5220.html

Last three polls...all by the same pollster, which gave Obama a 28-63 favorability rating in the district. Nice try. There's a reason even RCP and all the pundits are keeping it at lean D, Emerson's junk polls notwithstanding.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2014, 02:37:57 pm »

Considering that he couldn't beat Tierney under scandal, it's doubtful that he would beat a veteran that didn't even disclose his awards.

That was 2012.  Obama isn't on the ticket this year to bring people out to the polls.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2014, 02:39:34 pm »

The last three polls to come out on this race has shown Tisei with a slight lead.  He may very well lose at the end of the day, it's Massachusetts, but if you all actually believe this race is all but over and he has no shot at winning this seat then you're in as much denial as the Republicans were in 2006 when they scoffed at losing control of Congress despite what all the polls were saying.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/ma/massachusetts_6th_district_tisei_vs_moulton-5220.html

Last three polls...all by the same pollster, which gave Obama a 28-63 favorability rating in the district. Nice try.

Nice try at what?  My opinion has no affect on the race.  You're just taking personal offense because I think your party could lose the seat.  We'll see in a few days, but I think this seat is definitely up for grabs.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2014, 02:45:00 pm »

The last three polls to come out on this race has shown Tisei with a slight lead.  He may very well lose at the end of the day, it's Massachusetts, but if you all actually believe this race is all but over and he has no shot at winning this seat then you're in as much denial as the Republicans were in 2006 when they scoffed at losing control of Congress despite what all the polls were saying.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/ma/massachusetts_6th_district_tisei_vs_moulton-5220.html

Last three polls...all by the same pollster, which gave Obama a 28-63 favorability rating in the district. Nice try.

Nice try at what?  My opinion has no affect on the race.  You're just taking personal offense because I think your party could lose the seat.  We'll see in a few days, but I think this seat is definitely up for grabs.

You're trying to imply there's consensus when there is none. One pollster thinks Tisei is ahead. They also think Obama has a 28-63 favorability rating in a D+4 district. Do the math.
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KCDem
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2014, 05:22:50 pm »

Ignore the "independent" from Nevada, IceSpear. He hasn't a clue about politics.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2014, 05:25:18 pm »

Ignore the "independent" from Nevada, IceSpear. He hasn't a clue about politics.

Pretty strong accusation from someone who's hot political take throughout this election season has been "Junk poll"
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KCDem
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2014, 05:29:35 pm »

Ignore the "independent" from Nevada, IceSpear. He hasn't a clue about politics.

Pretty strong accusation from someone who's hot political take throughout this election season has been "Junk poll"

That's because there have been a great many junk polls.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2014, 05:35:30 pm »

Ignore the "independent" from Nevada, IceSpear. He hasn't a clue about politics.

Pretty strong accusation from someone who's hot political take throughout this election season has been "Junk poll"

You obviously haven't seen his posts about NH politics, then. Saying Garcia could run a competitive race because old UNH polls said so... Christ.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 05:37:28 pm by Sawx, King in the North »Logged
Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2014, 05:46:38 pm »

Oh Christ, a ten-point swing in a month?

Throw this in the trash.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2014, 12:21:02 am »

Looks like Moulton is set to win by 15 points despite Democrats underperforming expectations massively nationwide.

But I was a hack for telling people to ignore Emerson's junk polls. Roll Eyes
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