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Author Topic: MD-GOV: WPA Research (R) - Hogan by 5  (Read 2508 times)
Maxwell
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« on: October 30, 2014, 03:47:02 pm »
Internal Poll for the Hogan Campaign

44% Hogan
39% Brown

It's an internal, so obviously take a step of caution, but it is indicative of the direction this race has gone (their first poll had 48-36 Brown). I still think Brown is going to win, but far more narrowly than anyone anticipated. It includes a +27 advantage for Hogan among independents (I assume he does, but not of that rate) and a (!!!) +6 advantage with moderates (highly doubtful, if not damn near impossible).
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Bevinevitable
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 03:51:25 pm »
lol
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Thomas D
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E: -2.84, S: -6.61

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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 04:45:21 pm »
I'm sure it's close. But I'm also sure Brown in higher than 39%.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 04:47:10 pm »
Quote from: Thomas D on October 30, 2014, 04:45:21 pm
I'm sure it's close. But I'm also sure Brown in higher than 39%.

They definitely should've pushed undecideds harder.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 05:12:47 pm »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 30, 2014, 04:47:10 pm
Quote from: Thomas D on October 30, 2014, 04:45:21 pm
I'm sure it's close. But I'm also sure Brown in higher than 39%.

They definitely should've pushed undecideds harder.

A tell tale sign of a crap internal is not pushing undecideds IMO.
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fuck nazis
KCDem
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 05:36:55 pm »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 30, 2014, 04:47:10 pm
Quote from: Thomas D on October 30, 2014, 04:45:21 pm
I'm sure it's close. But I'm also sure Brown in higher than 39%.

They definitely should've pushed undecideds harder.

They probably did and didn't like the results.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2014, 05:03:02 pm »
Charlie Cook has moved this race to toss-up.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 05:18:08 pm »
Quote from: Thomas D on October 31, 2014, 05:03:02 pm
Charlie Cook has moved this race to toss-up.

Charlie Cook puts anything even vaguely competitive in "toss up". He has 14 races there now. Roll Eyes
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2014, 05:22:06 pm »
There has been a lack of polling here, so I think it is reasonable for him to do so. Brown still may win by double-digits, but we just don't know. There hasn't been a quality poll here in a month, and it seems Hogan has gained ground since then.

I still expect Brown to win, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Hogan pulled off an upset.
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R2D2
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2014, 06:33:34 pm »
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Or Bullock. Or Gabbard. Or Gillibrand. Or Harris. Honestly, anyone but Biden or Booker.
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sjkqw
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2014, 12:30:00 am »
Sooo, during the next cycle is the word going to be "Republican internals are usually accurate even better than muh PPP"

Nope? Didn't think so. (Nor should it be, but I don't want to hear the opposite again.)
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2014, 12:36:50 am »
Great poll!
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Maxwell
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2014, 12:52:00 am »
Quote from: R2D2 on October 31, 2014, 06:33:34 pm


ah ha
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