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  AR-The Arkansas Poll: Hillary leads generic R by 9 points
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Author Topic: AR-The Arkansas Poll: Hillary leads generic R by 9 points  (Read 6268 times)
Bevinevitable
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« on: October 30, 2014, 07:40:35 pm »

http://plsc.uark.edu/2014-Arkansas-Poll-summary-report-final.pdf

Clinton 47
Republican 38

Same sample that has Pryor losing by double digits.
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RR1997
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 03:09:26 am »

Clinton won't carry Arkansas. She will come close though.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2014, 11:52:24 am »

Clinton won't carry Arkansas. She will come close though.

I think she'll win it vs. several potential GOP nominees.
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Jacob Wohl
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2014, 04:45:56 pm »

Hilldawg is gonna whip out the paddle and administer a royal spanking to these GOP upstarts!
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2014, 06:46:08 pm »

It is hard to imagine a state which Obama lost by 24 votes even being in play, even with a favorite daughter. But Bill did win it twice so maybe.

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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2014, 06:59:33 pm »

I still think Arkansas could be competitive in 2016 if Clinton is the nominee. She won't win it by nine points but she could easily do well against a weak Republican.
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The Snarling Incarnation of anti-Left Rage
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2014, 11:15:10 pm »

It is hard to imagine a state which Obama lost by 24 votes even being in play, even with a favorite daughter. But Bill did win it twice so maybe.



She's not really from Arkansas anymore, I'd argue.  She's basically a New Yorker.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2014, 04:33:51 am »

I have a feeling that a lot of this is due to people projecting on Hillary an image that she almost certainly won't run on by the time the general rolls along.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2014, 05:09:11 am »

It is hard to imagine a state which Obama lost by 24 votes even being in play, even with a favorite daughter. But Bill did win it twice so maybe.

She's not really from Arkansas anymore, I'd argue.  She's basically a New Yorker.

The Arkansawyers see her as one of theirs. That matters.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2014, 05:26:26 pm »

It is hard to imagine a state which Obama lost by 24 votes even being in play, even with a favorite daughter. But Bill did win it twice so maybe.



She's not really from Arkansas anymore, I'd argue.  She's basically a New Yorker.
What else explains her polling numbers.
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DS0816
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2014, 03:53:16 pm »

It is hard to imagine a state which Obama lost by 24 votes even being in play, even with a favorite daughter. But Bill did win it twice so maybe.



She's not really from Arkansas anymore, I'd argue.  She's basically a New Yorker.
What else explains her polling numbers.

That those particular Arkansans may be willing to approve a Democrat if he or she is white.
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KCDem
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2014, 07:34:27 pm »

Junk poll! Hillary will easily lose Arkansas by double digits. She would be lucky to break 40%.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2014, 11:18:57 am »

Junk poll! Hillary will easily lose Arkansas by double digits. She would be lucky to break 40%.

Calm down, Junkie. 

The Upper South didn't take to Obama for a couple of obvious reasons, one depressing (he's a black) and one reasonable (coal and new energy).  As of right now, many of them are cool with Hillary.  Usually, I feel like I can prognosticate these things, but I'm baffled as to how a Presidential campaign will hurt or help Hillary in states like AR, TN, MO, and WV.  Gonna have to really take a look at some of these 2014 exit polls... and even then I have to extrapolate for increased turnout.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2014, 02:32:22 pm »
« Edited: December 30, 2014, 05:29:03 pm by pbrower2a »

If the Republicans go full throttle on a Corporatist agenda, then democrats can hit them with a populist agenda. Southern whites have readily accepted Southern agrarian whites as their sorts of conservatives... but they are not going to be so supportive of d@mnyankee right-wingers who have nothing to offer but peonage on behalf of Northern financiers and industrialists.  
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Bernie Has No Path
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« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2014, 04:13:28 pm »

It would be a feat if any Democrat reached Kerry's % in 2016. I wouldn't be shocked at this point if Hillary didn't break 40%.
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Libertarian Socialist Dem
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« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2014, 04:25:14 pm »

Junk poll! Hillary will easily lose Arkansas by double digits. She would be lucky to break 40%.

Calm down, Junkie. 

The Upper South didn't take to Obama for a couple of obvious reasons, one depressing (he's a black) and one reasonable (coal and new energy).  As of right now, many of them are cool with Hillary.  Usually, I feel like I can prognosticate these things, but I'm baffled as to how a Presidential campaign will hurt or help Hillary in states like AR, TN, MO, and WV.  Gonna have to really take a look at some of these 2014 exit polls... and even then I have to extrapolate for increased turnout.   

In the case of West Virginia I almost wonder if Tennant was just an unusually bad candidate combined with 2014 being an unusually bad year for Democrats nationally because even in 2012 Manchin won his senate race by almost as large a margin as Romney at the presidential level.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2014, 05:25:33 am »

Junk poll! Hillary will easily lose Arkansas by double digits. She would be lucky to break 40%.

Calm down, Junkie. 

The Upper South didn't take to Obama for a couple of obvious reasons, one depressing (he's a black) and one reasonable (coal and new energy).  As of right now, many of them are cool with Hillary.  Usually, I feel like I can prognosticate these things, but I'm baffled as to how a Presidential campaign will hurt or help Hillary in states like AR, TN, MO, and WV.  Gonna have to really take a look at some of these 2014 exit polls... and even then I have to extrapolate for increased turnout.   

Arkansas is not a coal state. Kentucky and West Virginia are.


The top 16 states in coal production:


    Wyoming (338,900).
    West Virginia (158,257)
    Kentucky (130,688)
    Pennsylvania (74,619)
    Texas (49,498)
    Montana (38,352)
    Illinois (33,444)
    Virginia (32,834)
    North Dakota (31,270)
    Colorado (29,137)
    Indiana (27,965)
    New Mexico (27,323)
    Utah (26,656)
    Ohio (22,269)
    Alabama (19,324)
    Arizona (13,111)
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2014, 09:41:47 am »



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Bernie Has No Path
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« Reply #18 on: December 31, 2014, 10:12:42 am »


VA & NC are solid R but AR is competitive?
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Bernie Has No Path
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« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2014, 03:57:19 pm »

It will be extremely close, but I just can't see her winning Arkansas.

Now, there is a lot of support in Arkansas for the right (white) type of Democrat.

I completely disagree. If Blanche and Pryor can't pull 40% in their respective races, no way is Hillary making it close. I'd say even in the event of a disastrous GOP candidate and a poor campaign, her ceiling would be around 46%.
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#StillWithBeto
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« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2015, 06:02:20 am »

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.
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Bernie Has No Path
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2015, 08:14:15 am »

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.

Nonsense. All of those candidates are well suited for AR.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2015, 11:27:21 am »

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.

Nonsense. All of those candidates are well suited for AR.
Yes, Christie is the candidate that could blow Arkansas for the Republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2015, 11:40:34 am »
« Edited: January 01, 2015, 11:45:53 am by pbrower2a »

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.

Nonsense. All of those candidates are well suited for AR.

In Presidential years in the past, and probably not anymore. The Republicans have played up the plantation heritage of most of the South, and it well fits an old ideal of extreme inequality and exploitation  that fits the GOP elsewhere.

The "New South" of the 1970s through the 1990s of Al Gore and Bill Clinton is dead. The GOP in most of the South might as well revive the old White Citizens Councils and Sovereignty Committees as tools of political control and repression.  The Democrats are going to win a statewide election Texas before they win any in the Mid-South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. 2026, maybe, in Texas, which has a very different ethnic mix and political heritage.

All that stops the full return of White Power in the Mid-South are the 13th, 14th, 15th, and 24th Amendments and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #24 on: January 01, 2015, 01:24:44 pm »

Blanche and Pryor were both running in toxic Democratic environments. Hillary will be running in a presidential year with higher turnout in [probably] a more neutral political atmosphere. While one cannot deny that Arkansas has swung incredibly rightward, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that she will certainly try to make Arkansas competitive; if nothing else, shave off some of the McCain/Romney margin and keep the Republican in single digits; however, if it's a Cruz/Carson/Paul type, she could very well win the state.

Nonsense. All of those candidates are well suited for AR.

In Presidential years in the past, and probably not anymore. The Republicans have played up the plantation heritage of most of the South, and it well fits an old ideal of extreme inequality and exploitation  that fits the GOP elsewhere.

The "New South" of the 1970s through the 1990s of Al Gore and Bill Clinton is dead. The GOP in most of the South might as well revive the old White Citizens Councils and Sovereignty Committees as tools of political control and repression.  The Democrats are going to win a statewide election Texas before they win any in the Mid-South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. 2026, maybe, in Texas, which has a very different ethnic mix and political heritage.

All that stops the full return of White Power in the Mid-South are the 13th, 14th, 15th, and 24th Amendments and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Lol no. I appeal to my fellow forumites - how many of you believe that slavery would be instituted in the South today without the 13th amendment?
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