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  NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5
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Author Topic: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5  (Read 845 times)
cinyc
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« on: October 30, 2014, 07:55:35 pm »

Time Warner Cable News/Siena College Poll of NY-18
Maloney (D) 49%
Hayworth (R) 44%
Don't Know/No Opinion 7%

October 24-27; 682 LV; MoE +/- 3.8

Cuomo leads 44-43-8 in the district.  Astorino is narrowly leading in the Orange County and Putnam/Westchester subsamples, indicating he has a chance of winning Orange and Putnam Counties - two counties Cuomo won in his 2010 race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 08:08:36 pm »

Considering these were Siena's results in 2012, it looks like Maloney is in pretty good shape.

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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 08:12:08 pm »

Considering these were Siena's results in 2012, it looks like Maloney is in pretty good shape.

Img


Siena has been accused of putting out polls biased toward incumbents.  Hayworth was the incumbent in 2012.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 08:13:03 pm »

Considering these were Siena's results in 2012, it looks like Maloney is in pretty good shape.

Img


Siena has been accused of putting out polls biased toward incumbents.  Hayworth was the incumbent in 2012.

Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 08:16:06 pm »

Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

I don't buy the argument that a pollster's bias in one cycle automatically carries over to the next cycle.  Pollsters make adjustments from cycle to cycle.  But if you are going to show a pattern from prior cycles, it has to be noted that that pollster also overestimated other incumbents that cycle, and is known for doing so.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 08:17:15 pm »

Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

I don't buy the argument that a pollster's bias in one cycle automatically carries over to the next cycle.  Pollsters make adjustments from cycle to cycle.  But if you are going to show a pattern from prior cycles, it has to be noted that that pollster also overestimated other incumbents that cycle, and is known for doing so.

So then you do think Maffei is down by more than 10?
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 08:21:17 pm »

Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

I don't buy the argument that a pollster's bias in one cycle automatically carries over to the next cycle.  Pollsters make adjustments from cycle to cycle.  But if you are going to show a pattern from prior cycles, it has to be noted that that pollster also overestimated other incumbents that cycle, and is known for doing so.

So then you do think Maffei is down by more than 10?

No.  If anything, I think the race is much closer.  But polls are what they are - a snapshot of the race at a particular time using the methodology of a particular pollster.  Public congressional polling in general is fraught with peril and not terribly reliable.
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