NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5 (user search)

IceSpear
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 31,840

Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Re: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5

« on: October 30, 2014, 08:08:36 PM »

Considering these were Siena's results in 2012, it looks like Maloney is in pretty good shape.

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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 31,840

Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Re: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5

« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 08:13:03 PM »

Quote from: cinyc on October 30, 2014, 08:12:08 PM

Quote from: IceSpear on October 30, 2014, 08:08:36 PM

Considering these were Siena's results in 2012, it looks like Maloney is in pretty good shape.

Siena has been accused of putting out polls biased toward incumbents. Hayworth was the incumbent in 2012.

Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 31,840

Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Re: NY-18: TWC News/Siena: Maloney (D) +5

« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 08:17:15 PM »

Quote from: cinyc on October 30, 2014, 08:16:06 PM

Quote from: IceSpear on October 30, 2014, 08:13:03 PM

Well, they just had Maffei down 10 a few days ago, unless you think he's down by more than 10...

I don't buy the argument that a pollster's bias in one cycle automatically carries over to the next cycle. Pollsters make adjustments from cycle to cycle. But if you are going to show a pattern from prior cycles, it has to be noted that that pollster also overestimated other incumbents that cycle, and is known for doing so.

So then you do think Maffei is down by more than 10?

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