Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 21, 2019, 07:23:18 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked  (Read 1858 times)
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,817
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 30, 2014, 11:14:17 pm »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/31/us-usa-elections-iowa-idUSKBN0IK00N20141031?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Braley 45
Ernst 45

Stupendous news! Looks like Ernst will soon be going the way of Bailey's neighbors' chickens.
Logged
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,528
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2014, 11:15:14 pm »

How good is Ipsos? I'll wait for another (decent) pollster to confirm this.
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2014, 11:16:16 pm »

Glorious news! Ernst is toast!
Logged
Panda Express
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,157


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2014, 11:16:40 pm »

Img
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2014, 11:17:26 pm »

I don't take a tie as great news. PPP with Bailey up outside the MOE will be.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,563
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:15 pm »

When a tie with a veritable fruit-cake is a good thing... ugh.

But it's still positive, will definitely want more verification before I see it as more than white noise.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,817
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:21 pm »

Hopefully Ernst finds some of those chickens Bailey chased out of his yard to trade for checkups, because she'll soon be unemployed.
Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,386
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:35 pm »

How good is Ipsos? I'll wait for another (decent) pollster to confirm this.
According to Fairfax (Australian newspaper who are now hiring Ipsos for Australian polling - Ipsos are an international firm rather than just an American one), "Ipsosí 2008 US presidential poll was regarded as the most accurate of the 22 covering the election that brought Barack Obama to power".

So you can't completely toss it in the junk.
Logged
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,717
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:59 pm »

This is a tragedy. Braley is a professional while Ernst is a full-on prole, almost a caricature really. If this was a house race (like the battle of mediocrities that is IA-03) it wouldn't be a big deal. But this is a six year deal. If Ernst entrenches herself like Grassley, it may take desperate measures (plant black tar heroin in her office) to get rid of her.
Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,386
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2014, 11:19:34 pm »

But yes, I'm still waiting for PPP.
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,941


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2014, 11:22:37 pm »

Does Ipsos have a ridiculous republican bias?
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,665


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2014, 11:25:42 pm »

From the last paragraph of the linked article:
Quote
The online poll of 1,129 likely voters in Iowa, conducted between October 23 and 29, had a confidence interval - similar to a margin of error - of 3.3 points.

So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2014, 11:26:04 pm »

Does Ipsos have a ridiculous republican bias?

That's irrelevant. Ernst cannot win.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2014, 11:27:21 pm »

I remember Ipsos(-Reid) in my province was an epic fail. Not relevant, I know Tongue
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,817
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2014, 11:30:04 pm »

From the last paragraph of the linked article:
Quote
The online poll of 1,129 likely voters in Iowa, conducted between October 23 and 29, had a confidence interval - similar to a margin of error - of 3.3 points.

So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.

The reason YouGov is discounted is because they poll the same people over and over again (therefore, not a random sample). As far as I know, Ipsos has never polled this race before, so it isn't a problem.
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 11:30:37 pm »

From the last paragraph of the linked article:
Quote
The online poll of 1,129 likely voters in Iowa, conducted between October 23 and 29, had a confidence interval - similar to a margin of error - of 3.3 points.

So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.

Yougov isn't junk because they poll online, but because they poll the same people over and over again.
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,073
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2014, 11:32:16 pm »

Bruce has got the juice. He will prevail on Tuesday.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2014, 12:23:55 am »

Interesting. Could the Democrats be making a final last stand?
Logged
Recalcuate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2014, 12:59:42 am »

Interesting. Could the Democrats be making a final last stand?

I'd like to see the internals and crosstabs of this internet poll before making any determination on that. Either they do these type of internet polls right and are reputable or they are wrought with errors like the You Gov process, which seems not quite perfected.

You'd think internet polls would skew younger and would thus be more favorable to the Democrats, just like land line only polls would skew older and more Republican.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2014, 01:53:40 am »

I remain pretty weary of online polls. They may be the wave of future but I'm not sure that the future is here yet.

Still, this is good to see. This one is obviously going to be super close.
Logged
JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,627


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2014, 06:31:13 am »

Well look at that... Braswell Brentley is making a last stand after all.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,486
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2014, 10:08:54 am »

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!
Logged
20PETE20
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,100
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2014, 10:42:15 am »

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!

Don't give up yet.
Logged
Recalcuate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2014, 11:12:58 am »

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!

Iowa has never not really been out of play for the Democrats. The polling has shown Ernest generally with a slight lead. It will probably be the closest non-runoff state on Election Day.
Logged
backtored
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2014, 11:35:02 am »

Rassy has Ernst up one. This and North Carolina could be the tightest races of the night.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines