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  AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5
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Author Topic: AK-Rasmussen: Sullivan +5  (Read 1177 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 31, 2014, 10:28:49 am »
« edited: October 31, 2014, 10:39:13 am by JRP1994 »

http://www.redracinghorses.com/showComment.do?commentId=286505

Dubious website, but Harry Enten tweeted the link.

Alaska Survey of 887 Likely Voters
October 27-30, 2014 By Rasmussen Reports

POLL:
Sullivan: 47%
Begich: 42%

ALREADY VOTED:
Begich: 54%
Sullivan: 37%

CERTAIN TO VOTE:
Sullivan: 49%
Begich: 43%


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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 10:30:34 am »

How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2014, 10:36:58 am »

How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

It's Rasmussen, but... You're talking about 11% of all votes cast early in Alaska according to the Elections Project. Much ado about nothing statistically. A likely MOE of about 9-10% on the subsample.

Sourcing: http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
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20PETE20
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2014, 10:43:41 am »

Begich up 17% with early voters, down 6% with those certain to vote, and somehow down 5% overall? Yeah, alrght. Lol.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2014, 11:06:02 am »

How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

Alaska's early vote has always trended Democratic in recent cycles. So much so that it makes precinct-level maps inaccurate because the early vote is only broken down by House District, not precinct. 

One thing to keep in mind is that at least in the primary, late early votes (from the days immediately before the election) aren't counted on election night. So if Sullivan and Begich are close to tied on election night, Begich will likely win.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2014, 11:09:07 am »

Begich up 17% with early voters, down 6% with those certain to vote, and somehow down 5% overall? Yeah, alrght. Lol.

It's Rasmussen-less Rasmussen, so take any of those numbers with a grain of salt.

However, there's not enough early vote out really to make that much of a material difference. You're probably talking about a sample size of 60 or so with a margin of error of roughly +/- 10%.

Early voting numbers in any poll should be taken with a grain of salt until there's enough of voters.

A Colorado Early Vote number where 63% of the 2010 vote has already voted would be much more reliable and statistically significant than an Alaska poll where there's as many as 9 out of 10 folks haven't voted yet.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2014, 11:10:25 am »

How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

Alaska's early vote has always trended Democratic in recent cycles. So much so that it makes precinct-level maps inaccurate because the early vote is only broken down by House District, not precinct. 

One thing to keep in mind is that at least in the primary, late early votes (from the days immediately before the election) aren't counted on election night. So if Sullivan and Begich are close to tied on election night, Begich will likely win.

Also I've heard that the ballots sent in from the rural Native areas could take 4-5 extra days to count.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 11:18:57 am »

How accurate are those early numbers compared to what has been returned so far? Was Alaska one of the states with a Dem advantage in early voting?

Alaska's early vote has always trended Democratic in recent cycles. So much so that it makes precinct-level maps inaccurate because the early vote is only broken down by House District, not precinct. 

One thing to keep in mind is that at least in the primary, late early votes (from the days immediately before the election) aren't counted on election night. So if Sullivan and Begich are close to tied on election night, Begich will likely win.

Also I've heard that the ballots sent in from the rural Native areas could take 4-5 extra days to count.

Election day results from the bush generally trickle in later on election night, but usually all but a handful of precincts get called in before the night is over. This will be the first election with significant early voting in more rural areas. I don't know when those results will be reported.  It won't be hard to count the relatively few legally permissible to count early ballots and include them with the election day tally call on election night, though.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2014, 11:24:23 am »

New Poll: Alaska Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-10-30

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2014, 11:40:06 am »

Might be Rass, but at least this will get EP's head out of the gutter
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KCDem
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2014, 11:57:23 am »

Ubvious junk. Begich has got this Smiley
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