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  MD-Gonzales Research: Anthony Brown = the next Martha Coakley ?
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Author Topic: MD-Gonzales Research: Anthony Brown = the next Martha Coakley ?  (Read 5604 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 27, 2014, 09:27:14 am »

46% Brown (D)
44% Hogan (R)

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The survey was conducted by Gonzales between October 20 and October 24 with 822 likely voters.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/10/27/shock-poll-republican-within-2in-deep-blue-maryland
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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 09:41:35 am »

I am a Maryland Dem and planning to vote for Hogan, I voted for Mizeur in the primary and cant stand Brown.  At least my area of Maryland got some attention and cash during Ehrlich's administration (I live in western Maryland)
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Queen Liz <3
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2014, 10:44:36 am »

Good God not again.
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2014, 11:01:10 am »

Anything that the daily caller post with the stupidly annoying, right-wing favorite title "shock poll" is trash.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2014, 11:11:28 am »

I don't watch much TV, but I've seen a lot more ads from Hogan than Brown.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2014, 11:37:57 am »

Anything that the daily caller post with the stupidly annoying, right-wing favorite title "shock poll" is trash.

Well, the "daily caller" did not pay for this poll.

And Gonzales (while not the best pollster) is non-partisan (their boss worked at Mason-Dixon in the 80s and 90s).
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SPC
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2014, 11:42:07 am »

Anthony Brown would not be the next Martha Coakley. He would be the next Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2014, 11:56:44 am »

Anthony Brown would not be the next Martha Coakley. He would be the next Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Indeed. I watched one of the debates, and while Brown sounds wonky, Hogan was a far more impressive debater. Not sure that has anything to do with it, but before the debates Brown was up 18 and now he's only up 3, so maybe that's something.
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2014, 12:06:56 pm »

Anything that the daily caller post with the stupidly annoying, right-wing favorite title "shock poll" is trash.

Well, the "daily caller" did not pay for this poll.

And Gonzales (while not the best pollster) is non-partisan (their boss worked at Mason-Dixon in the 80s and 90s).

The poll was commissioned by the Maryland Republican Party and leaked to the Daily Caller.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2014, 12:35:41 pm »

Maryland would be very smart to elect Hogan - he seems very capable and I think could accomplish a lot in Annapolis, working with Democratic majorities.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2014, 02:11:19 pm »

This is a Republican firm that under-estimated O'Malley's margin by 7% in 2010.

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2014, 02:56:59 pm »

This is a Republican firm that under-estimated O'Malley's margin by 7% in 2010.



Plus they had Brown only up 4 a while ago as well. WaPo and Baltimore Sun have Brown up 7-9 points. Trash it.
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sg0508
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2014, 03:55:08 pm »

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2014, 03:58:18 pm »

This is worse than Coakley. A lot of people thought it was a possibility a few months ago that Baker would  challenge her for the governor's seat (especially me), but no one thought Hogan would even be competing in this race.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2014, 03:59:21 pm »

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2014, 05:51:27 pm »

Brown will probably win by a double digit margin.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2014, 10:43:17 am »

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Yes
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2014, 10:46:20 am »


Anthony Brown out-martha'd martha. Dems should heckle this guy if he ever tries to run for something else.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2014, 12:24:34 pm »

I could be wrong, but the high African American population in Maryland usually makes it very difficult for the GOP win there because that is one of the strongest Democratic demographic, regardless of how weak the candidate is. I can't remember the last time in ANY Maryland race that a Republican broke 53%. 

Yeah, exactly. There's simply no path to victory for the GOP in Maryland anymore. They won by a slim margin in 2002 against an awful Democratic candidate, back when the state was less diverse and less Democratic. In order to win now they'd need Deep South-like margins among whites.

Looks like Hogan won the whites.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2014, 06:32:28 pm »

There are far bigger losers than Coakley.
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SWE
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2014, 06:38:38 pm »

Gonzales Research: New gold standard for Maryland polls?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2014, 06:40:13 pm »

Gonzales Research: New gold standard for Maryland polls?

No, they overestimated Brown by 11 points.

Junk poll!
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2014, 03:29:08 pm »

I still can't believe this race.  I was pretty sure that there was no path to victory for a Republican in Maryland anymore.  And it wasn't like Brown trailed consistantly in October polls like Kennedy-Townsend in 2002. 
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
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« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2014, 06:00:35 pm »

I guess everyone thought Brown was really incompetent?  I would normally think racism had something to do with it, but this is Maryland, a state that adores Obama.
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