2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For those interested, I am posting a map of each state's counting bias (i.e. who the early precincts tend to favor) . This is from analysis of 2008-12 election night coverage. It is not foolproof, it is always possible that a state will change how it counts all of the sudden and as you can see, there are some states where there is either an unclear one or apparently none at all. Also, these biases vary in strength - Georgia's is very bad for instance, but Massachusetts has only a slight bias. But, here you go:

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CNN: Long Lines in Mecklenberg County

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Great news for Hagan!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dixville Notch?

Pretty sure that is just for Presidential elections.

They should be the first to report, though (they were by a long shot in the primary).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks like Gardner may end up winning by just 2.5 points ...

BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?

I don't think they have one. 

It's probably in their agreements with newspapers that they don't bypass them.

But yet they provide the results to Politico, Google, and the TV networks. I know they had pages for the 2013 governor elections.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?

Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)

Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)


I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?

It's probably mostly due to the independent candidate in the Graham Race, Thomas Ravenel. Brad Hutto was counting on Ravenel taking enough votes away from Graham to allow him to pull off a win. Obviously, it didn't work, but Graham still ran 7 points behind Scott.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

States that have not yet published their official/certified results:

KS

KOBACHHHH!!!

I still can't believe that partisan piece of junk only ran 0.3% behind Romney's 2012 number.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ We'll also be covering it at AoS. We made several first calls on election night last month

You guys got really lucky on VA - came very close to making a wrong call. It's probably best to base things off more than one county next time.

An Excellent rule of thumb with VA is that a republican needs both Loudoun and Prince William to win. Until very late in the night, Gillespie had both of these counties in his column (he eventually lost hold on PW) If one/both of them goes for the democrat, the democrat wins. This has held up during all VA pres./senate/governor races this century:

2000/2002/2004 - R wins both Loudoun and PW, R wins.
2006 - Allen wins PW, Webb wins Loudoun, Webb wins.
2001/2005/2008/2012/2013 - Dem wins both Loudoun and PW, Dem wins.
2009 - McDonnell wins both, McDonnell wins
2014 - Gillespie wins Loudoun, Warner wins PW, Warner wins.

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The list of LA races is as follows:

District 1 Public Service Commissioner: Skrmetta (R) vs. Wright (R)
U.S. House District 5: Mayo (D) vs. Abraham (R)
U.S. House District 6: Edwards (D) vs. Graves (R)
U.S. Senate: Landrieu (D) vs. Cassidy (R)

Polls close at 9 PM EST.

No sign of a parish map from Politico yet, hopefully one will be posted at some point tomorrow. Also please note that Louisiana's count is really slow for the first hour or so.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA sen. Runoff results by parish: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/louisiana/runoff/december-06/#.VINrmMvnbqA

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cassidy 56-44 now, 14% in statewide. Still no orleans.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now down to 11% at 20% in. Only early vote from Orleans.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Back to 58-42 at 32% in.  Say goodbye, Miles!

Just as I predicted,Mayo running ahead of Edwards.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My prediction of 64-36 Abraham was spot on. I shall now accept my accolades

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Skrmetta (R) wins public service commissioner district 1, 51-49 over Wright (R).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Margins:

Skrmetta - 51%
Wright - 49%

Abraham - 64%
Mayo - 36%

Graves - 62%
Edwards - 38%

Cassidy - 56%
Landrieu - 44%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final results of the midterms:

Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)

House: 247R, 188D (R+13)

Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)

AZ-02 is still undecided. ( automatic recount has not yet occured) Should McSally lose her tiny lead, house composition will be 246-189

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With AZ-2 now officially going for McSally, all that is left is the Vermont governorship. One would assume that the legislature would choose Shumlin due to him winning the PV and the legislature being democratic, but Milne continues to push the members of the legislature to choose him instead.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With AZ-2 now officially going for McSally, all that is left is the Vermont governorship. One would assume that the legislature would choose Shumlin due to him winning the PV and the legislature being democratic, but Milne continues to push the members of the legislature to choose him instead.

There is no assuming. The Leg' has never chosen a candidate for the Governorship who didn't win the popular vote. It's not an uncommon occurrence, either.

Typically, one candidate or the other concedes (like Dubie did in 2010). In this case, Milne is not conceding. He is instead trying to get the democratic members of the legislature to vote as their state house districts did (Milne carried some of those districts), and that along with unanimous support from republicans is (according to him) enough to win.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Warner matched Obama in VA-09, his statewide lead would be cut to just under 6K votes, down from 17K.

Wouldn't that mean it didn't save him?

Well, it at least saved him from having to go through a recount. I could see Gillespie calling for one if the gap was only 6k.