2014 US Congressional Election Results

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Tisei concedes.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So is Mark Warner going to win or not? I'm not as savvy with remaining precincts and whatnot as some of you.

I can't find any remaining precincts on the map. I think it's just absentees and overseas military vote left.

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Thanks for the map Fuzzy!

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Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.

Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.

Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.

Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?

I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.

My expectation would be that for the Native Alaskan vote, the relative advantage is more now for Begich than when he went against Stevens, given Stevens work in establishing and advocating for the Native Corporations, meanwhile having Begich's more recent efforts at the Native vote and Sullivan's perceived hostility to their issues.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?

68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes

lol


americain people...

Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.

Do you think it would be worth checking how many people in that county rely on the government subsidies they continually vote against?

Of course it wouldn't be worth checking.

I'm sure people there love their government subsidies - that depend to a large extent on them not having jobs. They'd rather have jobs. Democrats have done nothing to convince them they will reverse economic decline in the area.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Are we going to see any results about how many write-in votes there were for Senate in Alabama?

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nice work.

a few borders stick out, but for the most part this was a national election.

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Great work on the Alaska maps, cinyc. I was wondering about the swing from 2008 and hoping someone would make a map. It looks more or less like I expected - swing to Begich in the Native areas, swing to the GOP in the Southeast.

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Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?  

No.  I don't think that data is easily available, either.  You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website.  The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.

That's pretty much what I suspected -that most whites are settled in or around Anchorage and Juneau with the vast hinterlands dominated by native Alaskans.  I just wanted visual proof to see if I was right, whether the racial breakdown corresponds to the vote.  

here's a quick, crude map I made using the Census DataMapper

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

^per the exit poll:

Among black voters

Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)

Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)

Among white voters

Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)

Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)

These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.

are you suggesting there were a bunch of blacks who voted for Hutto but not Dickerson?  I don't see any evidence for that, and it would be surprising if true.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

^As Vosem says, if the exit poll is to be believed 4% of blacks voted for Hutto while also voting for Scott. According to the exit poll, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, or about 322,420 votes out of 1,240,075 cast. Those 4% Hutto/Scott blacks would be about 12,897 votes that Hutto nets over Dickerson statewide which would get him from 459,583 to 472,480. Hutto wins 1% more of the white vote than Dickerson, winning him an additional 8,557 votes to get to 481,037. This is only 104 votes off from his actual total of 480,933.

So yes, that explains the difference in raw vote between Dickerson and Hutto. The difference in margin, on the other hand, is explained by the presence of third parties that almost uniformly make up the difference between Graham and Scott's raw numbers. This can be seen pretty much across the entire state with the difference in margin expanding the whiter (and more Republican) the county is. I haven't run an r-value correlation but I would expect it to be fairly significant. This makes sense given Ravenel's status as a former Republican and the stronger showing of the Libertarian candidate in the Hutto-Graham race.

I don't know how you can get that from the exit poll that 4% of blacks voted for Scott and Hutto. The exit poll says 89% voted for Hutto as opposed to 88% for Dickerson. That is a 1% difference between the Democratic candidates. 2% of blacks according to the exit poll voted for Ravenel.  So the number of blacks who voted for Scott for an independent candidate would be larger than the number who voted Scott and Hutto. But then, all these numbers are within a small portion of the subsample MOE.  There wasn't a large difference in the total vote for Senate between the regular and special elections, so why treat the difference in raw vote and in margin as two separate issues?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Did anyone notice how, in the Nebraska Senate race; petitioning candidate Jim Jenkins beat the Democrat, Dave Domina, in his home county of Custer County?

He did in Blaine Co also.

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Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.

Should a nonpartisan state redistricting commission be correcting for imbalances in other states?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.

Should a nonpartisan state redistricting commission be correcting for imbalances in other states?

I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.

If you don't want to address the question, you are free not to respond.