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  IA: Garin Hart Yang (D): Braley tied in internal
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Author Topic: IA: Garin Hart Yang (D): Braley tied in internal  (Read 1417 times)
Miles
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« on: October 29, 2014, 11:49:45 am »

Article.

Braley (D)- 47%
Ernst (R)- 47%
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2014, 11:51:22 am »

RIP Buster Brentley.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 11:53:36 am »

It's not looking good.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2014, 12:29:15 pm »

Bailey can still be governor  since he is a veteran
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2014, 12:30:17 pm »


Oh please. Branstad would flatten him.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 12:36:06 pm »

Bjorn B. Bleckley will soon be unemployed.
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Joshua
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2014, 12:44:35 pm »

Cannot get over how infuriatingly frustrating his candidacy was.

RIP Brent Brasby.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2014, 12:48:38 pm »

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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2014, 01:03:12 pm »

If an objective poll comes out with a R +3 or even an R +4 lead, you could at least say "well maybe it's an outlier", or fine some fault wit the crosstabs.  But if a Democratic internal has it at a tie, you know the race is lost, because that is literally the best poll they could come up with and it still wasn't enough.

I don't see why campaigns bother with internals anymore.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2014, 01:18:49 pm »

This seat should never have even been in play.  Great job, Barley Bales.  Roll Eyes
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2014, 02:15:43 pm »

That's so weak.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2014, 02:19:42 pm »

If an objective poll comes out with a R +3 or even an R +4 lead, you could at least say "well maybe it's an outlier", or fine some fault wit the crosstabs.  But if a Democratic internal has it at a tie, you know the race is lost, because that is literally the best poll they could come up with and it still wasn't enough.

I don't see why campaigns bother with internals anymore.

Why do we assume that campaigns blatantly make up poll results, but only to a specific point?  As if they're totally OK fabricated a poll that's off by 3, but they have too much honor and dignity to release an internal off by 5.  That doesn't make sense to me. 

And, would it really help Braley in any material to pretend that he's leading by one or two or three?  In terms of rallying his base and getting them to volunteer, I don't think that makes a difference.  Whatever the actual result, it's going to be what it's going to be.  Whether or not an accurate poll has come out reflecting that is not at all connected to the eventual result.  In other words, candidates don't win because they're leading in polls, they lead in polls because more people are planning to vote for them.

In any case, it does seem like there's a divergent picture with the polling in Iowa.  Maybe I'm a partisan hack and I probably am, but I don't believe these polls with Ernst up 4.  Rather, I'm going to put a lot of stock in what the DMR poll says. 
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2014, 05:00:38 pm »

It'll be closer than we think, but Bob is probably going to lose to Ernst if he can only tie in an internal.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2014, 05:02:21 pm »

RIP Braley, the master of chickens.
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Joshua
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2014, 11:44:06 pm »


Who??
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2014, 11:38:31 am »

We'll never forget you, Brian!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2014, 07:13:23 pm »

Junk poll!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2014, 08:05:56 pm »


When and how did this hilarious meme get started?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2014, 09:50:03 pm »


It all started with Michelle Obama
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2014, 11:01:16 pm »

Do y'all think he'll become friends with Sue Lowden after this election? Hopefully future politicians will learn a lesson from Braley and Lowden and avoid chickens at all costs.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2014, 11:06:41 pm »

Do y'all think he'll become friends with Sue Lowden after this election? Hopefully future politicians will learn a lesson from Braley and Lowden and avoid chickens at all costs.

Haha, this is true.
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