Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 21, 2019, 08:51:46 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | | | |-+  IA: Selzer: RIP Braley
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print
Author Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley  (Read 11108 times)
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,378
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 01, 2014, 07:00:34 pm »

Link coming.

Ernst (R)- 51%
Braley (D)- 44%
Logged


Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2014, 07:01:24 pm »

wtf
Logged

fuck nazis
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2014, 07:02:34 pm »

WOW!
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,565


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2014, 07:03:59 pm »

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2014/11/01/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-leads-bruce-braley/18345157/
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,373
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2014, 07:04:13 pm »

WOW!
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2014, 07:04:28 pm »

Castrated!
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,279
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2014, 07:05:20 pm »

Outlier.
Logged

Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2014, 07:08:04 pm »

Outlier.

I was about to say. Let's see some other polls before we come to conclusions. The PPP poll is something I'm looking forward to.

But yeah, RIP Buck Bentley
« Last Edit: November 01, 2014, 07:14:55 pm by IDS Emperor Maxwell »Logged
Potus
Potus2036
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,847


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2014, 07:08:54 pm »

Squeal Bailey squeal!

Looks like "some farmer from Iowa" is gonna chair the judiciary committee.
Logged



Former Governor, Senator, Presidential Candidate, and Secretary of State.
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,290
Australia


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2014, 07:09:23 pm »

Ouch. Are Iowa and Wisconsin trolling us?
Logged

Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,185
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2014, 07:10:06 pm »

This is the state's gold standard poll, so even if it's off by a point or two, definitely not junk.

It's time to say goodbye to the worst campaigner after Martha Coakley....
Logged

Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,496
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2014, 07:11:02 pm »

Outlier.

I was about to say. Let's see some other polls before we come to conclusions. The PPP poll is something I'm looking forward to.

     Me too. It sure looks like an outlier, but with the PPP numbers that have come out so far this does not seem impossible.
Logged

Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2014, 07:11:06 pm »

And that's the ball game, folks. Soon we will have a turtle in control of the Senate. Oh joy.

Still, I highly doubt Ernst wins by this much. Even if Walker/Ernst win by slim margins, we'll need to start looking for new "gold standards" in IA/WI, which is a potentially interesting development.
Logged

krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2014, 07:14:16 pm »

Braley is closing strong and will win.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2014, 07:15:12 pm »


lol dude, the election hasn't even happened yet. Calm down.
Logged

fuck nazis
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,683
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2014, 07:16:43 pm »

Ugh god dammit Iowa.
Logged

Steve Bullock 2020.

Listen to Silent Planet.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,378
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2014, 07:20:33 pm »

Braley losing IA-01 by 3. Yikes.
Logged


JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,619


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2014, 07:22:17 pm »

I doubt Ernst leads by 7, but she almost certainly leads. And Brad Billingsly has run out of time.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2014, 07:35:39 pm »

Looks like Tuesday is a big make or break for the reputation's of Selzer and Marquette.
Logged

fuck nazis
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2014, 07:36:58 pm »

Ugh god dammit Iowa.

Don't blame Iowa, blame Brock Busterson
Logged
Mayor Steve Pearce
SawxDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,861
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2014, 07:40:42 pm »

Christ.
Logged

Quote from: Snowguy716
Sawx, pop a molly and you will fit in anywhere.  You are supergeil.

Sawx the womanizer Tongue.
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,525
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.42, S: -7.30

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2014, 07:42:39 pm »

Logged

Quote from: My Immortal
"WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING YOU MOTHERFUKERS!"

it was.................Dumbledore!
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2014, 07:44:32 pm »

Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2014, 07:45:58 pm »

Branstad is also up way more than in other polls.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,565


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2014, 07:49:54 pm »

Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.

The sample size is 701, which is just fine for a statewide poll.  The MoE is +/- 3.7, which is lower than the usual +/- 4 we see for statewide polls.

Selzer has polled other states in past cycles.  I recall seeing a Selzer Ohio poll in 2012, but I might be wrong.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines