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  VA- Christopher Newport: Warner starting to suck
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Author Topic: VA- Christopher Newport: Warner starting to suck  (Read 6352 times)
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shua
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2014, 01:15:04 am »

The days of >10% blowouts in VA for either side may be over.  It's getting very inelastic.

I think that may be true at least for the moment.

I expect Warner will basically win the counties and cities where Cuccinelli got less than 50%, plus a couple others.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #26 on: November 15, 2014, 08:36:13 pm »

This was actually the most accurate poll in VA. Wow.
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Miles
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« Reply #27 on: November 15, 2014, 08:46:20 pm »

But this was a non-competitive race!
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #28 on: November 15, 2014, 08:49:29 pm »

Actually, no.

This is very difficult to believe, but the most accurate poll in Virginia was a Vox Populi poll which had Warner up by four. Let that sink in.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #29 on: November 15, 2014, 08:53:11 pm »


Yep, Safe D alright Grin
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #30 on: November 15, 2014, 11:46:16 pm »


Well, Warner won, so yes, you were correct.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2014, 12:58:51 am »

Having a race as Safe D means the Democrat will definitely win, and likely do so by double digits.

The margin was so close in VA, that it makes one wonder if the race would have gone the other way had the national party invested in GOTV efforts there in the final days. Anyone who had it Safe D (myself included) made an incorrect prediction.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2014, 04:01:14 pm »

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I don't really understand all the predictions saying Warner was safe. I was hollering out at the Pubbies to GOTV, in Virginia, as that was gonna be the closest seat.

Called VA for Gillespie and NH for Brown. Other than that was pretty much on.
 

 
 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #33 on: November 18, 2014, 04:12:41 pm »

Having a race as Safe D means the Democrat will definitely win, and likely do so by double digits.

The margin was so close in VA, that it makes one wonder if the race would have gone the other way had the national party invested in GOTV efforts there in the final days. Anyone who had it Safe D (myself included) made an incorrect prediction.

By all accounts, the turnout problem was worse in heavily Dem areas.  Had there been Warner +1 polls circulating in early October, both parties would have put millions into the state.  But the Democrats had more to gain by increasing turnout.  The likely outcome would be Warner winning with Obama 2012 numbers.
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