What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?
Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.
I can't find it in the
poll or
crosstabs.
37% of respondents already voted. That includes 54% of Democrats, 33% of Republicans and 28% of Independents.
12% of all likely voters didn't vote in the 2010 elections. A greater percentage of Republicans (10%) than Democrats (7%) didn't vote in 2010. The percentage of Independents who didn't vote in 2010 is greater than those from either party (19%).