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  IA: Selzer: RIP Braley (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA: Selzer: RIP Braley  (Read 12793 times)
Devils30
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Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: November 01, 2014, 07:44:32 pm »

Selzer and Marquette have a good history but its a very small sample size as they only poll single states. The numbers say Ernst should win by 1-2%, this poll is an outlier but it would be surprising to see Braley win at this point. Ernst only has a RCP lead of 1.8%.
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Devils30
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Posts: 1,904
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Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2014, 07:45:58 pm »

Branstad is also up way more than in other polls.
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Devils30
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Posts: 1,904
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Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2014, 08:02:07 pm »

Again, I think Ernst is up but by a lot less than this.
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Devils30
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Posts: 1,904
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Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2014, 08:11:22 pm »

Oh, she's a good pollster. Has had outliers like this before though. http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/06/22/155530608/bloomberg-pollster-defends-survey-showing-obama-with-big-lead
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Devils30
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Posts: 1,904
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2014, 09:14:21 pm »

What's the breakdown of the already voted crowd in this poll?

Also, Iowa is probably the Obama state most likely to turn red in the coming years. Let's face it, it's heavily rural, white, declining in population and aging. In the 2020s I expect Iowa to have an R+ PVI. States like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Colorado have a much higher likelihood of becoming blue states over the long term than Iowa.
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Devils30
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Posts: 1,904
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2014, 11:13:50 pm »

If it's a 2 point Ernst win then Braley most likely wins IA-1 and 2. Braley I guess was a bit overrated from the start, barely survived in 2010 and his 2012 margin was the same as Obama in that district. A stronger Dem would have won by more than 1 point in 2010s version of IA-1.
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