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  LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
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Author Topic: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff  (Read 5476 times)
Miles
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« on: November 01, 2014, 07:11:51 pm »

Link coming.

Landrieu- 43%
Cassidy- 35%
Maness- 15%

Cassidy- 48%
Landrieu- 47%
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morgieb
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2014, 07:12:35 pm »

Runoff figures?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2014, 07:13:10 pm »

That ain't good numbers for her in the primary.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2014, 07:13:16 pm »

Cassidy leads 48-47 in the runoff.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2014, 07:14:03 pm »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?
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morgieb
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2014, 07:15:04 pm »

Oooh, closer than I imagined.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2014, 07:16:44 pm »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2014, 08:01:31 pm »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

I think she will.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2014, 08:03:28 pm »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

I think she will.
She definitely can, but it will likely require runoff turnout to be just like November turnout, which is hard to see.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2014, 08:04:48 pm »

Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?
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Clarko95
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2014, 08:09:35 pm »

Louisiana's going to be a nail-biter too, what a pleasant surprise. I hope she can pull this out again.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2014, 08:11:25 pm »
« Edited: November 01, 2014, 09:19:31 pm by Miles »

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-11-01

Summary: D: 43%, R: 35%, I: 15%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2014, 09:11:27 pm »

Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?

Because Cassidy and Maness are both Republicans. Their share of the vote combined makes 50%. Once Landrieu and Cassidy go to a runoff, Republicans  are united around Cassidy.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2014, 09:11:29 pm »

You screwed up the numbers
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Free Bird
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2014, 09:13:26 pm »

It's official. This PPP wave is junk. Absolutely no way Lanny is in the MoE  with all the trips she has made.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2014, 11:31:23 pm »

It's official. This PPP wave is junk. Absolutely no way Lanny is in the MoE  with all the trips she has made.

I see you're prepping the argument if the PPP numbers in the heavy contests out tomorrow show the Dems doing OK.

It's PPP(D) junk polls!!!!
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Impeachment Inquiry
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2014, 11:41:01 pm »

Not long ago, PPP was the gold standard when it was showing good results for Republicans, not that it's showing not so favorable results, it's back to being junk.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2014, 12:38:43 am »

Much better than I was expecting. She just may have a shot at this.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2014, 12:42:13 am »

I think she has a 50/50 chance if Senate control is settled in November.  If the run-off determines control, she is done.
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2014, 01:09:55 am »

That ain't good numbers for her in the primary.

Who cares? In 1996 and 2002, a majority of the first round votes were for Republicans. She won the second round.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2014, 06:15:09 am »

If anybody is going to pull off the upset of the cycle, it's going to be her.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2014, 09:49:49 am »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..
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Miles
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2014, 09:51:04 am »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

Yep. I wasn't even expecting LA to swing to Obama.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2014, 11:08:47 am »

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.
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Vosem
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2014, 11:24:37 am »

Looks totally reasonable. Landrieu is a skilled politician and will be able to keep the runoff close, but unless the atmosphere changes a great deal in the next month, I don't think she can win it. Even with the inflated minority November turnout she's still only hitting 47%.
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