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  Sullivan edges Begich in final PPP Alaska poll
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Author Topic: Sullivan edges Begich in final PPP Alaska poll  (Read 1929 times)
Maxwell
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2014, 12:39:25 am »

^^^Seriously. There's really nothing that would surprise me in Alaska. Begich landslide, Sullivan landslide, anything in between.

The most likely scenario, based on Alaska being as Republican as it is, is Begich losing his Senate seat.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2014, 12:40:51 am »

^^^Seriously. There's really nothing that would surprise me in Alaska. Begich landslide, Sullivan landslide, anything in between.

The most likely scenario, based on Alaska being as Republican as it is, is Begich losing his Senate seat.

Yes, definitely.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2014, 01:25:43 am »

Genuine question: With all of this talk about how Alaska loves incumbents, are there instances when it benefited a Democratic incumbent??
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KCDem
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2014, 01:32:51 am »

Genuine question: With all of this talk about how Alaska loves incumbents, are there instances when it benefited a Democratic incumbent??

Only thing I can think of is swing to Obama in 2012. But Alaska hasn't really had it's own Dem incumbent in a while...
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2014, 01:34:57 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 01:36:53 am by realisticidealist »

Genuine question: With all of this talk about how Alaska loves incumbents, are there instances when it benefited a Democratic incumbent??

Tony Knowles ran statewide five times, the only time he ever crossed 50% was as the incumbent governor despite originally winning with 41%. Obama also overperformed there in 2012 (relative to expectations as there was zero polling done) as the state swung his way more so than any other state in the country. There's also the Murkowski reelection which suggests it isn't just a Republican Party name brand type thing.

Simply put, there haven't been enough Dem incumbents to know for sure. This election will test the hypothesis.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2014, 03:01:05 am »

Genuine question: With all of this talk about how Alaska loves incumbents, are there instances when it benefited a Democratic incumbent??

Well, you can't really have that discussion about Alaska Democrat Senators, since they haven't had one up for re-election since 1980. And Mike Gravel lost in the Democratic Primary. The guy that beat Gravel went on to lose the general election to Frank Murkowski.

The Senator before Grabel, Ernest Gruening, lost the Democratic nomination to Grabel in 1968.

The other Alaska Democrat, Bob Bartlet, died while in office and was replaced by Ted Stephens.

I guess those Democrats got two terms each, while the Murkowskis and Stephens held on to their seats forever. Stephens lost to Begich in 2008.

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Gustaf
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2014, 05:29:22 am »

The swing to Obama in 2012 is likely due to a Palin effect no?

I don't see why Palin on the ballot would bias the polling in 2008 though. That doesn't necessarily make sense to me. In fact, it makes little sense in general that there would be a polling bias for incumbents. What's the logic behind that theory?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2014, 07:27:09 am »

No idea what's going to happen here. I'm thinking Begich may have a better shot at surviving than Udall or Bailey though which is pretty funny.

Also lol @ Don't Young. Stop threatening to kill people, you old coot.
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