muon2
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« on: November 03, 2014, 12:16:16 AM » |
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Actually the results are quite interesting. When the poll included Grimm, he got 3% and undecided was 5%. That's one of the lower totals for Grimm when his name was specifically used and consistent with movement away from the third party as election day nears.
When they pushed the Grimm and undecided voters it came up 48% for both Rauner and Quinn with 4% not sure. That is to say the Grimm/Undecided when pushed went about 3 to 1 for Rauner. Looking at the crosstabs, by gender it was about 2 to 1 for women and better than 4 to 1 for men. Independents in that pushed group also moved 3 to 1 for Rauner. They don't have any regional crosstabs.
As I've noted after earlier polls I think that the Grimm factor is the wild card, and the union and Dem strategy downstate reflects that. If the remaining undecided voters continue to break like the independents in this poll when they get to the booth, then it will be a very close race. If more Grimm voters continue to move away the race could go narrowly to Rauner. However, if they stay on the third party line then Quinn should get the win.
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