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Author Topic: NH-Final NEC Poll: Brown +1  (Read 4493 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: November 02, 2014, 10:09:21 pm »

http://www1.nh1.com/news/paul-steinhauser-new-nh1-nec-poll-nh-governor-and-senate-contests-all-knotted-up/#.VFbxgNFs7NI.twitter
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 10:10:08 pm »

Too good to be true
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 10:13:41 pm »

Oh, could you imagine this place if he wins...
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2014, 10:14:17 pm »

Governor and NH-02 numbers look right, but NH-01 has Shea-Porter down way too much. 4-6 I would believe but a 9 point gain in 2 weeks is quite a bit.
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2014, 10:14:52 pm »

Guinta with a 9 point lead? LOL to the junk pile it goes!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2014, 10:15:37 pm »

Apparently this firm doesn't poll cell phones. No wonder they're so junk!
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2014, 10:16:09 pm »

It seems statistically VERY unlikely that they'd have literally the exact same result three times in a row.

Combine that with the fact that they had to recall some of their house polls, and something smells very fishy about these guys.
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2014, 10:18:51 pm »

It seems statistically VERY unlikely that they'd have literally the exact same result three times in a row.

Combine that with the fact that they had to recall some of their house polls, and something smells very fishy about these guys.

New England College has no reason to fudge numbers in Brown's favor, they are just a terrible pollster.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2014, 10:19:50 pm »

     New Hampshire only attracts the dodgiest polling firms.
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2014, 11:12:04 pm »

I still think Shaheen pulls this out, but it's going to be a 2-4% win.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2014, 11:12:51 pm »

    New Hampshire only attracts the dodgiest polling firms.

I'd like to introduce you to Michigan.
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2014, 11:22:08 pm »

Oh, could you imagine this place if he wins...
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2014, 12:09:03 am »

Oh, could you imagine this place if he wins...

It would say much more about New Hampshire voters than fellow forumites.
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2014, 12:09:52 am »

Oh, could you imagine this place if he wins...

The only thing better would be a Gillespie win in Virginia. Atlas would explode.
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2014, 12:10:39 am »

Oh, could you imagine this place if he wins...

It would say much more about New Hampshire voters than fellow forumites.

It would probably paint a much better picture of the former than the latter.
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2014, 12:28:27 am »

Oh, could you imagine this place if he wins...

The only thing better would be a Gillespie win in Virginia. Atlas would explode.
As it is, the wait for a Warner call on Tuesday should make things explode a little, especially if the early results look weird (like in 2012, when Mitt Romney actually led in the early count in Prince William County, before the Obama precincts swooped in big).

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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2014, 12:34:58 am »

Are Shaheen and Brown the only ones on the ballot?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2014, 12:35:45 am »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by New England College on 2014-11-01

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2014, 12:45:19 am »

Are Shaheen and Brown the only ones on the ballot?
Yes
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2014, 10:17:55 am »

For over a month now every poll out of 20 (other than last week's tie from ARRRGHH) has shown Shaheen ahead. The exception: 4 polls all from NEC. The previous 3 showing the exact same 48/47 split. It'll be close of course, but I'm not buying a Brown upset here.
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2014, 05:34:39 pm »

For over a month now every poll out of 20 (other than last week's tie from ARRRGHH) has shown Shaheen ahead. The exception: 4 polls all from NEC. The previous 3 showing the exact same 48/47 split. It'll be close of course, but I'm not buying a Brown upset here.

Hard to say. Ground game is going to make the difference in New Hampshire. If the more conservative/tea party folks sit home or vote write-in, sadly Shaheen wins...
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KCDem
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2014, 05:50:52 pm »

For over a month now every poll out of 20 (other than last week's tie from ARRRGHH) has shown Shaheen ahead. The exception: 4 polls all from NEC. The previous 3 showing the exact same 48/47 split. It'll be close of course, but I'm not buying a Brown upset here.

Hard to say. Ground game is going to make the difference in New Hampshire. If the more conservative/tea party folks sit home or vote write-in, sadly Shaheen wins...

The thing is ground game is going to be to the benefit of the Democrats nationally. That will swing the close races in their direction.
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2014, 05:58:09 pm »

For over a month now every poll out of 20 (other than last week's tie from ARRRGHH) has shown Shaheen ahead. The exception: 4 polls all from NEC. The previous 3 showing the exact same 48/47 split. It'll be close of course, but I'm not buying a Brown upset here.

Hard to say. Ground game is going to make the difference in New Hampshire. If the more conservative/tea party folks sit home or vote write-in, sadly Shaheen wins...

The thing is ground game is going to be to the benefit of the Democrats nationally. That will swing the close races in their direction.

It's hard to make that claim though. I think almost certainly in Alaska and Colorado, but nationwide? Republicans are the party traditionally known for their grassroots efforts, and I think in the Northeast they may still be able to pull it off. I'm in no way calling a Brown win, but the ground game could be a benefit there - it's hard to tell just yet.
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2014, 06:01:08 pm »

For over a month now every poll out of 20 (other than last week's tie from ARRRGHH) has shown Shaheen ahead. The exception: 4 polls all from NEC. The previous 3 showing the exact same 48/47 split. It'll be close of course, but I'm not buying a Brown upset here.

Hard to say. Ground game is going to make the difference in New Hampshire. If the more conservative/tea party folks sit home or vote write-in, sadly Shaheen wins...

The thing is ground game is going to be to the benefit of the Democrats nationally. That will swing the close races in their direction.

It's hard to make that claim though. I think almost certainly in Alaska and Colorado, but nationwide? Republicans are the party traditionally known for their grassroots efforts, and I think in the Northeast they may still be able to pull it off. I'm in no way calling a Brown win, but the ground game could be a benefit there - it's hard to tell just yet.

Yes, but the Democrats invested $60 million in competitive senate race ground game. I'm guessing New Hampshire is within that expenditure.
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