For over a month now every poll out of 20 (other than last week's tie from ARRRGHH) has shown Shaheen ahead. The exception: 4 polls all from NEC. The previous 3 showing the exact same 48/47 split. It'll be close of course, but I'm not buying a Brown upset here.
Hard to say. Ground game is going to make the difference in New Hampshire. If the more conservative/tea party folks sit home or vote write-in, sadly Shaheen wins...
The thing is ground game is going to be to the benefit of the Democrats nationally. That will swing the close races in their direction.
It's hard to make that claim though. I think almost certainly in Alaska and Colorado, but nationwide? Republicans are the party traditionally known for their grassroots efforts, and I think in the Northeast they may still be able to pull it off. I'm in no way calling a Brown win, but the ground game could be a benefit there - it's hard to tell just yet.
