CO: PPP - Gardner (R) 48; Udall (D) 45

[Devils30]

Obamas approval seems low. No way he's 8% below his national numbers in a state that's roughly average. That said, gardner probably wins by 1% or so.

[Devils30]

I still believe Hickenlooper holds on in the end. PPP oddly was pretty good here in 2010 with senate but way off with governor. In the end it seems like gardner will win 48.5-47 etc.

[Devils30]

My prediction is Gardner by 1-2 points (1.5 to be exact) and Hickenlooper by 1.

Yeah. Approval was 41%, tweeted 35% for some reason but 41 seems legit. Still, the vote by mail adds another wrinkle to this. Gardner SHOULD win this but there's always a chance Udall wins by 150 votes after a long recount.

[Devils30]

I'm not big one bit on party ID in polls but the exits in 2010, 2012 all had Dems leading while the pre-election polls mostly had the GOP ahead.

[Devils30]

No doubt that Dems were helped here by the GOP slate of miserable candidates. Made up for the turnout deficit.

[Devils30]

Not a fan of unskewing the polls but no way Udall is losing if he wins indies by 11%. Of course he probably isn't but this poll seems R friendly with party ID and has too many Ds and Rs and not enough Is.

[Devils30]

The combination of landline robocalls and internet polling just makes me uneasy. This final result seems legit but who really knows?

[Devils30]

Gardner should win this but looking at RCP it is eerily similar to the 2010 Senate race in Colorado. 2.5 average lead for Gardner with most polls having him up 2-3.