NH-01: WMUR Granite State Poll (by UNH): Tie
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  NH-01: WMUR Granite State Poll (by UNH): Tie		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NH-01: WMUR Granite State Poll (by UNH): Tie  (Read 1975 times)
cinyc
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« on: November 03, 2014, 12:55:56 AM »
WMUR Granite State Poll by the University of New Hampshire:
Guinta (R) 47%
Shea-Porter (D) 47%
Other 1%
Don't Know/Undecided 6%

October 29-November 2; 405 LV; MoE +/- 4.9

Without leaners, it was 45-41-1-14 Guinta.  UNH's prediction, with zero undecideds, is 50-49-1 Guinta.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 12:57:06 AM »
Looks like we can make a bonfire out of junk NH polls tonight!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 08:04:46 AM »
How is this junk again? I believe Shea-Porter will win, but 47 all doesn't sound that unreasonable.
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free my dawg
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 12:42:19 PM »
Quote from: smilo on November 03, 2014, 08:04:46 AM
How is this junk again? I believe Shea-Porter will win, but 47 all doesn't sound that unreasonable.

UNH is very swingy. Their NH-2 poll swung from Garcia+4 to Kuster+23 to Kuster+11 in the last three polls.

Garcia got caught plagiarizing a few floor speeches, but Walsh only dropped about ten points for his plagiarism. Hell, Akin only dropped 20 points in the polls after his legitimate rape comments. Completely implausible swings in public opinion lead to a junk firm.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2014, 05:38:46 AM »
Holy crap
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krazen1211
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2014, 04:15:49 PM »
These guys nailed both house races in NH.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2014, 04:39:17 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on November 08, 2014, 04:15:49 PM
These guys nailed both house races in NH.

Yeah, but their penultimate polls were all wildly off. I think this was true in 2012 as well (or maybe 2008). I guess the lesson is: only listen to UNH's final polls.
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