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  GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3  (Read 4326 times)
KCDem
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« on: November 03, 2014, 08:11:45 am »

Poll has blacks at 26% of the electorate with Nunn at 29% with whites. Even in 2010, blacks made up 28% of the electorate. Given the early voting numbers, they will make up 30% of the electorate tomorrow. So according to this poll, Nunn is favored to win outright, which is glorious news!
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KCDem
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 11:36:27 am »


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Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!
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KCDem
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 11:56:28 am »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.
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KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 11:59:27 am »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.

Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.

Bro, even the RSCC and Perdue are panicking. Nunn is very likely to win outright.
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KCDem
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Posts: 1,929


« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 12:03:51 pm »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.

Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.

Bro, even the RSCC and Perdue are panicking. Nunn is very likely to win outright.
Stop your trolling. Nunn does not have anywhere near an 80,90% chance of winning outright.

This is going to a runoff. Enough said.

Haha your delusional hackery knows no bounds, we'll see how you feel tomorrow night...

DOMINATED!
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KCDem
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Posts: 1,929


« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2014, 12:17:24 pm »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.

Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.

Bro, even the RSCC and Perdue are panicking. Nunn is very likely to win outright.
Stop your trolling. Nunn does not have anywhere near an 80,90% chance of winning outright.

This is going to a runoff. Enough said.

Haha your delusional hackery knows no bounds, we'll see how you feel tomorrow night...

DOMINATED!
In which case you're accusing Nate Silver of hackery as well:

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-chance-of-holding-on-continues-to-fall/

Now that Silver has joined the Beltway he is no longer objective. Narrative 100% truth be damned.

May I also remind you that Silver is bad at calling senate races.
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