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  GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3  (Read 4283 times)
Recalcuate
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« on: November 03, 2014, 11:23:02 am »


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Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.
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Recalcuate
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Posts: 444


« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 11:51:11 am »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.
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Recalcuate
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Posts: 444


« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 12:21:42 pm »

Funny, I though Silver joined ESPN so he could model sports, too. We all know the centre of the ESPN universe is the Yankee/Red Sox world. Certainly not the Beltway.
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Recalcuate
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Posts: 444


« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 12:24:16 pm »

Some people do not realize when certain posters are just trying to push buttons.

Oh I recognize it. It's much more entertaining responding back though.
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