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  GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA: Survey USA: Final poll has Perdue+3  (Read 4328 times)
Badger
badger
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« on: November 03, 2014, 10:06:18 am »

What's the news? This race has been all but certain to go to runoff for weeks now, and Perdue's chances in the runoff are very good (and almost a given if Senate control comes down to LA and GA).
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 11:45:31 am »


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Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Plus he's, y'know, correct.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 11:57:54 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2014, 12:18:59 pm by Badger »


Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.
Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 12:20:14 pm »

OK KC, your once somewhat more amusing than annoying act is rapidly growing stale.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 12:37:08 pm »

Some people do not realize when certain posters are just trying to push buttons.

Oh I recognize it. It's much more entertaining responding back though.

Ditto. Amusement, not "obsession", has always been my motivation.

Though KC borders the "better off ignored" category.
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