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  IL-Gov, Simon Institute: Rauner in the lead
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Author Topic: IL-Gov, Simon Institute: Rauner in the lead  (Read 55209 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 17, 2014, 02:33:04 pm »

Link

Rauner 42.4
Quinn 40.7





Prosperity and Freedom for Illinois!
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2014, 02:35:15 pm »

It's not going to matter.  Unless Rauner is near 50% (i.e. >48%) on Election Day, he will lose due to the classic Cook County "Coming Home" effect, which is one of the strongest in the country.
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Chance92
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2014, 02:35:36 pm »

Decimals. Trash it.
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2014, 02:37:07 pm »

Quinn will win.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2014, 02:37:10 pm »

Rauner is still cooked if that's the best he can do in his most favorable poll.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2014, 02:39:17 pm »

Quinn leads 41.2 to 38.6 among RV.

Rauner is toast.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2014, 04:47:35 pm »

It's not going to matter.  Unless Rauner is near 50% (i.e. >48%) on Election Day, he will lose due to the classic Cook County "Coming Home" effect, which is one of the strongest in the country.

Coming home from the Crook County cemetery to vote you mean? (That was too easy).

The only thing certain about Illinois politics is that the governor eventually gets indicted. Party affiliation matters not.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2014, 04:48:20 pm »

RIP bruce rauner Sad
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2014, 05:21:08 pm »

Quinn leads 41.2 to 38.6 among RV.

Rauner is toast.

Prosperity and Freedom for Illinois!
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2014, 08:52:43 pm »

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Lol naaah. The fact that Quinn is within 2% even when the poll puts him at 57-28 in the city is indicative of what is actually going to happen in this race. Rauner won't break 20 in the city.
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KCDem
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2014, 10:44:42 pm »

This race is over folks.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2014, 01:45:24 am »


I agree
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2014, 03:06:06 am »

It really shows how much some members of this forum are really dem hacks when a poll showing Rauner ahead is used for justification of Rauner having no chance at all.

I shall remind you all that Cook, Rothenberg, and Sabato still have this at Toss-Up.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2014, 12:52:09 pm »

It really shows how much some members of this forum are really dem hacks when a poll showing Rauner ahead is used for justification of Rauner having no chance at all.

I shall remind you all that Cook, Rothenberg, and Sabato still have this at Toss-Up.

He still trails in every other poll, including WAA which routinely gave him double digit leads.

Just for some context, this exact pollster (conducted at almost the same dates in 2010) gave Brady an 8 point lead.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2014, 03:59:06 pm »

Plus, Quinn was elected never winning a poll among likely voters versus Brady. 
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muon2
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2014, 08:20:21 pm »

The real problem with this poll is that is was conducted over a three week spread, from Sep 23 to Oct 15. That doesn't mean that the numbers they posted are wrong, but it does mean that one might not want to compare this to a typical poll taken over 1 to 3 days. Months ago when the ad buys weren't as heavy one could look at this kind of a poll as a general sense of the electorate. It's not really a snapshot of the form "If the election were held today, ... ."
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Clarko95
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2014, 11:25:47 am »
« Edited: October 19, 2014, 11:27:59 am by Clarko95 »

It's not going to matter.  Unless Rauner is near 50% (i.e. >48%) on Election Day, he will lose due to the classic Cook County "Coming Home" effect, which is one of the strongest in the country.
In 2010, the coming home effect got him to win by only 32,000 votes. The coming home effect didn't help Giannoulias, who lost by 64,000 votes in the same election to Kirk (who was able to boost his suburban margins over Brady). Quinn is arguably more vulnerable in 2014 than he was in 2010 and Rauner is a better candidate to play in the collar counties and suburban Cook. If Quinn can't turn out enough of his base, and/or if Rauner blows up his suburban + downstate margins high enough, he can overcome the Dem vote.

I wouldn't take Quinn's re-election for granted solely because of the coming home effect. This race is still a toss up.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2015, 11:46:08 am »

Quinn leads 41.2 to 38.6 among RV.

Rauner is toast.

Let me guess: There is a 0% chance that Rauner will win? Like there is a 0% chance that Hillary will lose?

Sorry for the bump Tongue Going through these old threads is really hilarious. "The Checkpoint Charlie will send the Criminal to jail!", "Mason-Dixon shows FL tied, so Crist leads by 6!", "Davis has this", "LOL Larry Hogan!", "Wolf down by 25%? Wow, at this rate he may only lose by 10 on Election night, Toss-up!", "Brown not winning by 20 points is proof that Maryland is a racist state!"...  I wish I could bump more of the old threads... On the other hand, bumping the polls showing Hillary ahead by 20 points in Nov. 2016 will be much more fun Smiley
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Skye
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2015, 09:20:57 am »

I'm so sorry for the bump, really; but this thread is nothing but hillarious. I wonder how many more threads like this we're going to have until November 2016.
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