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| | | | | |-+  PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
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Author Topic: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3  (Read 25171 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2014, 05:19:26 pm »

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
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KCDem
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2014, 05:21:04 pm »

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.

You have no clue, dude, you live like a million miles away.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2014, 05:21:26 pm »

Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? Roll Eyes #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis
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Devils30
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2014, 05:22:28 pm »

Don't know why Ernst being up 3 is doom but her up 1 from same pollster gives Braley hope. It's all statistical noise and she's favored by 1-2 points.
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Ljube
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2014, 05:34:51 pm »

Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? Roll Eyes #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis

Based on this last PPP poll and all undecideds breaking for R's.
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2014, 05:35:31 pm »

Pretty much proof that PPP doesn't fudge their polls for their clients anymore than they do/don't for the rest of us.
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Vega
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2014, 05:38:00 pm »

I like this more than 2010. But yeah, it'll be a long night.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2014, 05:39:37 pm »

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.
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Miles
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« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2014, 05:46:30 pm »

Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? Roll Eyes #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis

Based on this last PPP poll and all undecideds breaking for R's.

In the PPP poll, there are more Dem/Ind undecideds than Republican undecideds.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2014, 05:47:01 pm »

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.

Control of the Senate can come down to one seat. Kansas isn't taking that risk with Orman.
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KCDem
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« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2014, 05:49:06 pm »

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.

Control of the Senate can come down to one seat. Kansas isn't taking that risk with Orman.

Have you ever even met a Kansan?
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KCDem
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« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2014, 06:02:57 pm »

When you include leaners, Perdue and Nunn are tied at 48%. 8% of blacks are still undecided in the PPP poll which would push Nunn up to 50%. She'll definitely finish ahead of Perdue tomorrow night. The question is if she wins outright.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2014, 06:13:31 pm »

I do think the fundamentals of the race in GA do suggest Nunn will be ahead tomorrow night... the issue is by how much.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2014, 06:15:29 pm »

Ga and La goes to runoffs and we go to round 2.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2014, 06:16:34 pm »

Ga and La goes to runoffs and we go to round 2.
Oddly enough, I actually agree with you.
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« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2014, 06:19:08 pm »

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.
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KCDem
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« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2014, 06:25:54 pm »

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2014, 06:40:20 pm »

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

I'd put it at 2:1 going to a runoff for Perdue/Nunn with Deal/Carter at 50/50. The Senate libertarian should finish in the 2-3% range.  The Governor libertarian should finish in the 3-4% range historically.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2014, 06:55:24 pm »

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2014, 06:56:44 pm »

I still think Roberts pulls out a win.  NC and NH will be close.  GA will probably go to runoff.
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Miles
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« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2014, 07:00:52 pm »


The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #46 on: November 03, 2014, 07:01:44 pm »

How's the racial mix for GA?
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KCDem
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« Reply #47 on: November 03, 2014, 07:11:46 pm »


The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.

If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2014, 07:19:37 pm »

A lot of close races tomorrow. I hope the Democratic ground game advantage is real and we manage to steal at least one of CO, IA, and GA. We'll see.
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KCDem
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« Reply #49 on: November 03, 2014, 07:24:08 pm »

A lot of close races tomorrow. I hope the Democratic ground game advantage is real and we manage to steal at least one of CO, IA, and GA. We'll see.

If the Democratic ground game advantage is real, we will over perform across all competitive races.
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