PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3

[KCDem]

HAHA Branstad only up 11!!!! #IowaisDemCountry

[KCDem]

So Orman is up 1 and Hassan up 6

[KCDem]

JUNK POLLS!

[KCDem]

Wait, so Orman is doing better in this than their internal poll, yet Davis is doing worse in this than his internal? Weird.

I would love to believe Brownback is only down 1. I'll be going into tomorrow night expecting a Brownback loss and 50/50 on Roberts or Orman, hopefully setting myself up for a pleasant surprise.

Everyone is giving up on Brownback. Even Republican operatives. Only Roberts has a prayer.

[KCDem]

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.

You have no clue, dude, you live like a million miles away.

[KCDem]

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.

I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.

Control of the Senate can come down to one seat. Kansas isn't taking that risk with Orman.

Have you ever even met a Kansan?

[KCDem]

When you include leaners, Perdue and Nunn are tied at 48%. 8% of blacks are still undecided in the PPP poll which would push Nunn up to 50%. She'll definitely finish ahead of Perdue tomorrow night. The question is if she wins outright.

[KCDem]

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.

[KCDem]

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.

If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?

[KCDem]

A lot of close races tomorrow. I hope the Democratic ground game advantage is real and we manage to steal at least one of CO, IA, and GA. We'll see.

If the Democratic ground game advantage is real, we will over perform across all competitive races.

[KCDem]

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.

I'm guessing dropoff to 31-30%.

At 93% Nunn that gets her to 28-29% of the vote.
If we assume whites at 64%, she needs to win others 50/50 in order to win with 30% of the white vote. I'm guessing she wins overs 3-2 which means she can probably drop to 28% of the white vote. Easily doable.

[KCDem]

I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night.

Your posts make my eyes bleed.

We know Republicans don't handle the truth well