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| | | | | |-+  PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3  (Read 25215 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« on: November 03, 2014, 04:39:23 pm »

Good news about KS,the rest was as expected.

These aren't the results just guesses... but they're still pretty close to what I'm expecting.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 06:13:31 pm »

I do think the fundamentals of the race in GA do suggest Nunn will be ahead tomorrow night... the issue is by how much.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 06:55:24 pm »

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 07:01:44 pm »

How's the racial mix for GA?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 07:30:26 pm »

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,565
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2014, 01:51:59 am »

So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.
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