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  Vox Populi - Virginia Senate: Warner by 4
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Author Topic: Vox Populi - Virginia Senate: Warner by 4  (Read 4251 times)
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jfern
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2014, 12:55:16 am »

1. Create two polling companies
2. Have them each have biases of 5 points towards one of the parties
3. If polls are off 5 points in either direction, one of them is now the gold standard.
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Smash255
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2014, 12:59:31 am »

One of two things is going to happen on Tuesday in Virginia:

Vox Populi is going to lose any shred of remaining credibility.
We're all going to have, in the words of Tom Brokaw, "Not just egg on our faces, omelette all over our suits."

Vox Populi has plenty of chances to lose their credibility on Tuesday, not just Virginia. They also show Udall (NM) in trouble and Tillis/Brown scoring easy wins.

Let's not forget this guys. Yes, Tillis won, but it was narrow. Brown lost, and Udall won easily by double digits, as expected.
Most expected T. Udall to win by more than 10. And only Harper and Vox had Tillis leading at the end, so they are, for now, the best NC pollsters.

Using that logic....


Pollster 1 has candidate A wining by 1%
Pollster 2 has candidate B winning by 12%

Candidate B wins by 0.5%

What pollster is better?
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