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Author Topic: IL: Ogden & Fry (R): Rauner claims 4-point lead in internal  (Read 2248 times)
KCDem
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« on: November 03, 2014, 07:18:02 pm »

Rauner 49%
Quinn 45%

2 1-day samples with the same results

Nov. 1 sample (1,163 likely voters)
Nov. 2 sample (1,051 likely voters)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6Q1c1NjJveEgwSFE/view

...no undecideds
...65+ at around 40% of sample

JUNK POLLS!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 07:20:08 pm »

About as believable as the Arkansas internal.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 07:21:06 pm »

Rauner 49%
Quinn 45%

2 1-day samples with the same results

Nov. 1 sample (1,163 likely voters)
Nov. 2 sample (1,051 likely voters)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6Q1c1NjJveEgwSFE/view

...no undecideds
...65+ at around 40% of sample

JUNK POLLS!

Confirms that the Illinois governors race is close. Likely released to quell the Quinn momentum in the non-partisan polls. Quinn has the advantage in the real world at this point.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2014, 07:23:37 pm »

About as believable as the Arkansas internal.

Nah. That one Arkanasas internal had Ross up FOUR, when most polls have Ross pretty much down double digits. That's not nearly as bad as this one, which is, granted, pretty awful.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2014, 07:27:54 pm »

LOL

As sad as Illinois's dumbness is, Quinn is probably going to win.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2014, 07:28:08 pm »

About as believable as the Arkansas internal.

Nah. That one Arkanasas internal had Ross up FOUR, when most polls have Ross pretty much down double digits. That's not nearly as bad as this one, which is, granted, pretty awful.

Well the Arkansas one may be more egregious, but they're both 0% believable.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2014, 07:28:41 pm »

About as believable as the Arkansas internal.

Nah. That one Arkanasas internal had Ross up FOUR, when most polls have Ross pretty much down double digits. That's not nearly as bad as this one, which is, granted, pretty awful.

Well the Arkansas one may be more egregious, but they're both 0% believable.

I'll give you that. Junk Poll!
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Clarko95
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2014, 08:31:52 pm »

Img


Ugh.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2014, 09:39:07 pm »

LOL

As sad as Illinois's dumbness is, Quinn is probably going to win.

Yep, such dumbasses! Voting for the choice that most aligns with them politically. Who does that?
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2014, 11:32:29 pm »

LOL

As sad as Illinois's dumbness is, Quinn is probably going to win.

Yep, such dumbasses! Voting for the choice that most aligns with them politically. Who does that?
Blah people!!!
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2014, 02:42:41 am »

Heh, turned out to be right on the money. Probably an accident rather than unusually good polling though.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2014, 03:11:21 am »

For the most part, Republican internals nailed it this year.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2014, 07:26:27 pm »

For the most part, Republican internals nailed it this year.

Indeed.  Just as Dem internals nailed in 2012.  Hopefully we won't have too many blue avatars attempting a stupid extrapolation of 2014 polling error like the Dems did [to an extent] this cycle with 2012 polling error.

Hopefully this election illustrates the principle learned in any basic stats class:  don't extrapolate from a limited sample size.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2014, 08:55:56 pm by GaussLaw »Logged
Nichlemn
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2014, 07:29:18 pm »

For the most part, Republican internals nailed it this year.

Indeed.  Just as Dem internals nailed in 2012.  Hopefully we won't have too many blue avatars attempting a stupid extrapolation of 2012 polling error like the Dems did [to an extent] this cycle.

Hopefully this election illustrates the principle learned in any basic stats class:  don't extrapolate from a limited sample size.

Unfortunately, 90% of the analysis in this forum is like that.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2014, 07:59:01 am »

Hopefully this election illustrates the principle learned in any basic stats class:  don't extrapolate from a limited sample size.

Unfortunately, 90% of the analysis in this forum is like that.

What sample size are you using to extrapolate that 90% figure?
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