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muon2
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« Reply #75 on: November 25, 2014, 10:49:27 PM »

My submission for VA. My CD3 is 50.6% BVAP








How did you get the Warner-Gillespie numbers for the CDs with chopped counties/cities?
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Miles
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« Reply #76 on: November 25, 2014, 10:55:18 PM »

^ The Virginia Public Access Project has precinct-level results.
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Miles
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« Reply #77 on: November 25, 2014, 11:02:58 PM »

Also, I did the 2013 Governor's race, but forgot to save my work. I remember the rough breakdowns being something like this:

1- 49/44 Cuccinelli
2- 50/44 McAuliffe
3- 69/25 M
4- 47/46 C
5- 52/42 C
6- 57/35 C
7- 50/41 C
8- 68/26 M
9- 62/32 C
10- 50/45 C
11- 57/38 M
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muon2
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« Reply #78 on: November 25, 2014, 11:33:22 PM »


Very nice. Of course it helps that VA doesn't have too many precincts. It looks like my county of less than 1 million has more precincts than the whole state of VA.
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morgieb
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« Reply #79 on: November 26, 2014, 12:09:52 AM »

Virginia's popping up with errors for me for some reason...so help?
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Miles
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« Reply #80 on: November 26, 2014, 12:17:35 AM »

^ Is this better?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #81 on: November 26, 2014, 05:31:32 AM »

I approve of all three items, btw. 
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Del Tachi
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P P P

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« Reply #82 on: November 26, 2014, 12:11:56 PM »

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muon2
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« Reply #83 on: November 26, 2014, 11:44:27 PM »

To illustrate the above items 4 and 5, I will apply them to angryGreatness-A (I'll use letters to designate different plans from the same poster).

District 1 (Blue)
  • Deviation: 290
  • Election 2008: John McCain - 54.4%, Barack Obama - 44.7%
  • Racial Breakdown: 73% White, 15.3% Black, 6.2% Hispanic

District 2 (Green)
  • Deviation: -422
  • Election 2008: Barack Obama - 49.8%, John McCain - 49.4%
  • Racial Breakdown: 62.6% White, 23.3% Black, 5.9% Hispanic

District 3 (Purple)
  • Deviation: -30
  • Election 2008: Barack Obama - 64%, John McCain - 35.2%
  • Racial Breakdown: 48.8% White, 35.2% Black, 5.9% Hispanic

District 4 (Red)
  • Deviation: 83
  • Election 2008: Barack Obama - 67.6%, John McCain - 31.7%
  • Racial Breakdown: 51.8% Black, 39.3% White, 5.2% Hispanic

District 5 (Yellow)
  • Deviation: -903
  • Election 2008: John McCain - 51.2%, Barack Obama - 47.8%
  • Racial Breakdown: 71.7% White, 21.5% Black

District 6 (Teal)
  • Deviation: 586
  • Election 2008: John McCain - 56.4%, Barack Obama - 42.5%
  • Racial Breakdown: 83.9% White, 7.9% Black, 5.1% Hispanic

District 7 (Silver)
  • Deviation: 352
  • Election 2008: John McCain - 57.9%, Barack Obama - 41.3%
  • Racial Breakdown: 76.2% White, 13.1% Black

District 8 (Slate Blue)
  • Deviation: 384
  • Election 2008: Barack Obama - 68.2%, John McCain - 30.9%
  • Racial Breakdown: 52.8% White, 12.9% Black, 18.2% Hispanic 19.7%, 11.5% Asian

District 9 (Light Blue)
  • Deviation: 501
  • Election 2008: John McCain - 59.5%, Barack Obama - 39.1%
  • Racial Breakdown: 91.8% White

District 10 (Pink)
  • Deviation: -219
  • Election 2008: Barack Obama - 57.4%, John McCain - 41.9%
  • Racial Breakdown: 61.4% White, 6.2% Black, 11.6% Hispanic, 17.3% Asian

District 11 (Light Green)
  • Deviation: -624
  • Election 2008: Barack Obama - 58%, John McCain - 41.3%
  • Racial Breakdown: 51.3% White, 14.8% Black, 18.2% Hispanic, 12% Asian

CD-01: PVI-08=-8.6; uncompetitive R
CD-02: PVI-08=-3.5; competitive R
CD-03: PVI-08=+10.8; uncompetitive D
CD-04: PVI-08=+14.4; uncompetitive D
CD-05: PVI-08=-5.4; competitive R
CD-06: PVI-08=-10.7; uncompetitive R
CD-07: PVI-08=-12.1; uncompetitive R
CD-08: PVI-08=+15.1; uncompetitive D
CD-09: PVI-08=-14.0; uncompetitive R
CD-10: PVI-08=+4.1; competitive D
CD-11: PVI-08=+4.7; competitive D

SKEW: +5-6 = -1; S score 1 (R)
POLARIZATION: 4+2*7 = 18; P score 18
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morgieb
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« Reply #84 on: November 26, 2014, 11:46:36 PM »

I voted for all 3 items FWIW.
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muon2
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« Reply #85 on: November 27, 2014, 08:40:47 AM »

For comparison, here are the political measures for Miles-A. For shorthand I use D and R for uncompetitive districts, d and r for competitive districts, and e for highly competitive districts. In order they are r,e,D,r,r,R,R,D,R,r,d or 2D, 1d, 1e, 4r, 3R. That gives S = 4 (R), P = 15.

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Torie
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« Reply #86 on: November 27, 2014, 02:45:06 PM »

"A competitive district has a PVI of 2 through 5 (-0.054 to -0.015 and +0.015 to 0.054) and statistically such districts have an 3 out of 4 chance of being held by the favored party."

That seems like a very wide range to me, with 1.5 to 2.5 quite competitive, and 4-5 not much, although I suppose an examination of results in the past would be instructive. In my brain, once you hit 4, a seat is pretty safe absent unusual developments, or a significant trend going on. Is there an advantage in bifurcating this category, and adjusting the point count some?
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muon2
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« Reply #87 on: November 27, 2014, 04:22:57 PM »

"A competitive district has a PVI of 2 through 5 (-0.054 to -0.015 and +0.015 to 0.054) and statistically such districts have an 3 out of 4 chance of being held by the favored party."

That seems like a very wide range to me, with 1.5 to 2.5 quite competitive, and 4-5 not much, although I suppose an examination of results in the past would be instructive. In my brain, once you hit 4, a seat is pretty safe absent unusual developments, or a significant trend going on. Is there an advantage in bifurcating this category, and adjusting the point count some?

There was a 538 analysis some time ago and it matched the Cook use of PVI 5 or less as a "swing" seat. Statistically there's not as much difference between PVI 2 and PVI 4 as you might think. I could've made a fancy linear fit to the data so that the scale slides for all PVI's, but I couldn't find that it really adds anything. There's a tendency to micro-manage the statistics like when 538 says that a seat has moved from 66% R to 70% R. Mathematically it's correct, but given the statistical uncertainty of the input polls, it's not a meaningful change. If I can find the data set again I'll supply a link.

OTOH, there's a more meaningful issue inside the measure for SKEW that the commission may want to consider. If you look at the two maps I scored, you'll see that Miles-A is a more competitive plan than angryGreatness-A. However, that came at the expense of a Pub skew to Miles map. If the commission wants to reward competitiveness more, I would adjust SKEW so that uncompetitive districts only count twice as much as competitive districts. That would have no effect on angryGreatness-A since there are equal numbers of competitive d and r districts, but it would reduce the relative SKEW of Miles-A in comparison.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #88 on: November 27, 2014, 07:49:37 PM »



This is based on maintaining Urban County Clusters, and limiting the splitting of counties.  As I had done for the UCC definition, I used the original counties, subject to annexations of independent cities into adjoining counties.

For that purpose - the following pairings are used: Lynchburg-Campbell County, Galax-Carroll County, Radford-Montgomery County, Alexandria-Arlington County, Falls Church-Fairfax-Fairfax County, Fredericksburg-Spotsylvania County, Richmond-Henrico County, Dinwiddie-Petersburg, Colonial Heights-Chesterfield County, Hopewell-Prince George County, Franklin-Southampton County, Williamsburg-James City County, Poquoson-York County, Norfolk-Portsmouth-Cheasapeake (Norfolk County).

Newport News, Hampton, Virgnia Beach, have annexed the entirety of their original counties of Warwick, Elizabeth City, Princess Anne, and Nasemond counties, respectively.

There are 3 large UCC's in Virginia that cover multiple counties, Washington (NOVA), Richmond, and Hampton Roads.  Each requires more than one congressional district.

The three large UCC's isolate the area along the James, York, Rappahannock, and Potomac Rivers.  Shifting the southern extension of the Washington UCC (Stafford, Fredericksburg IC, Spotsylvania) to this district along with James City and York from the Hampton Roads UCC, and wrapping around the Richmond UCC got the necessary population.

The remainder of the Washington UCC had a population of 3.067, and I considered using a maximum deviation of 2.5%.

Adding in the two Delmarva counties, put the Hampton Roads area at 1.996.  I had considered going across Cheasapeake Bay, but this would not get better population equality.

The Richmond UCC had a population equivalent to about 1.5 CD so I kept adding into the Southside until there was enough population for two districts.

I then drew the three western districts.  It turned out that the last only had a population of 0.927.   I had a large surplus in the Washington area, but did not systematically create a deficit elsewhere, and the deficit ended up in one district.  Arguably, the 3-district Washington area with its deviation of 0.067 had a systematic error, since it would have required all 3 districts to be close to the 2.5% limit.   Combining the 3-district area with the northern area gives a population of 3.994.

Shifting a few counties resulted in all 6 regions within 1%, including the multi-district regions.

I then noticed that the Fairfax County-Arlington County-Fairfax-Falls Church-Alexandria area had a population of 2.013, and the remainder 1.981.   This will permit creation of four districts within 1% error.

This will require a single split of Fairfax County, rather than two, and chopping off a chunk of Loudoun or Prince William counties.

In the Hampton Roads area, there will likely be a split of Norfolk, with most of the city added to Newport News-Hampton-Portsmouth, and the other district wrapping around south of Nortfolk and Portsmouth.

A case could be made that the split of York County and Poquoson is a chop.

A split of Chesterfield County is likely necessary in the Richmond area.  The total population of Chesterfield County-Henrico County-Richmond is 1.138, and trying to reach around from Richmond to south of the James, displaces other districts.  Splitting Chesterfield will keep the Southside district somewhat remote from Richmond.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #89 on: November 28, 2014, 12:59:41 AM »

Now with city lines



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Sol
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« Reply #90 on: November 28, 2014, 09:59:19 AM »

As an interest group representative from the Shenandoah Valley, I would like to express my opinion of the various preceding maps.

AngryGreatness: Excellent! Your teal district keeps the Shenandoah Valley whole and together, and it will surely elect a true local representative. Someone from the Roanoke metro may not like it as much, however.

Miles: I can't see yours because of school blocks. Tongue

Jimrtex: Your plan slices and dices the natural community of interest in NW Virginia. It is unacceptable.
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muon2
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« Reply #91 on: November 28, 2014, 10:52:10 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2014, 10:56:15 AM by muon2 »

To aid people who are already working on maps and are looking at chopping Richmond to comply with the VRA, here is a map of the city divided into five areas based on the generally accepted groupings of neighborhoods. The boundaries are adjusted to conform with the voting districts in DRA.



Blue - Downtown; pop 11,816; BVAP 30.7%
Green - East End; pop 27,084; BVAP 71.1%
Purple - Northside; pop 32,018; BVAP 69.2%
Red - West End; pop 49,504; BVAP 14.2%
Yellow - Southside; pop 83,792; BVAP 54.4%
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Miles
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« Reply #92 on: November 28, 2014, 10:30:11 PM »


Miles: I can't see yours because of school blocks. Tongue

Can you see this?

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jimrtex
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« Reply #93 on: November 29, 2014, 04:08:32 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2014, 10:19:10 PM by jimrtex »

Initial Submission



There are four split counties/independent cities: Cheasapeake city; Chesterfield County; Fairfax County; and Loudoun County.   The split of Fairfax County is necessary because of its size.  The others are reasonable because they help confine districts to urban areas.


Newport News-Hampton-Poquoson-Portsmouth-Norfolk is about 8% short of a CD, so I added the South Norfolk area of Cheasapeake IC.  Norfolk and Portsmouth were both formed from Norfolk County.  The independent city of South Norfolk was created in 1921.  In 1963 South Norfolk and the remainder of Norfolk County merged to form the city of Cheasapeake.

The area included in the VA-10 is generally inside the Hampton Roads Beltway (I-64).



The area of Chesapeake placed in VA-10 is 27.7% of the city, 8.4% of the CD, it is slightly more Black than the CD as a whole (42.5% vs 41.6%), and slightly less Obama-supporting (66.2% vs 67.6%)


CD Population CD Pop. % County % CD    White   Black   Hisp.  Asian  AIAN   Other  2-way  Obama    McCain
10    61549   730192   27.7%    8.4%   48.8%   42.5%   5.1%   1.7%   0.4%   1.6%   27241   66.2%   33.8%
11   160660   728792   72.3%   22.0%   67.8%   23.6%   3.2%   3.5%   0.3%   1.6%   79378   45.3%   54.7%
     222209           100.0%           62.5%   28.8%   3.7%   3.0%   0.3%   1.6%  106619   50.6%   49.4%


Henrico-Hanover-Richmond is about 16% short of a CD.   The area added from Chesterfield County generally extends outward from the part of Richmond south of the James River.



VA-5 includes Arlington County, Alexandria, Falls Church, and the east part of Fairfax County, generally south of Washington, as opposed to west of Washington.

The area included is generally inside the Beltway, except on the west in the McLean area, or east of I-95 southward along the Potomac.   The western boundary is generally Lorton-Newington-Springfield-Annandale-Jefferson-Falls Church-Arlington County.



Loudoun plus Prince William (including Manassas and Manassas Park) have an excess of 5.4%.  The 13 county area to the south has a deficit of 7.3% (for a collective deficit of 1.9%).   Splitting the difference, an area with about 6.4% of CD needs to be split off.   This is roughly 15% of the total population of Loudoun County.

The area detached Loudoun County is in the less developed portion of the county, west of US-15 and Leesburg.



Statistics (right click, view image to make readable size).



Population Equality

Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.61%; Standard Deviation 0.65%; Range 1.76%.

Political:

Republican Uncompetitive (5): 1, 2, 3, 7, 9.
Republican Competitive (1): 11
Even (0):
Democratic Competitive (3): 4, 6, 8
Democratic Uncompetitive (2): 5, 10

Skew: Statewide(0) - Republican(6) + Democratic(5) = -1
Polarization: Even(0)*0 + Competitive(4)*1 + Uncompetitive(7)*2 = 18
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muon2
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« Reply #94 on: November 29, 2014, 11:56:18 AM »

A gentle reminder to the commission that Items 4 and 5 are awaiting action and discussion. In particular I noted a possible amendment to Item 4 that may be worth discussion.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #95 on: November 29, 2014, 09:13:08 PM »

Is there a way to get county splits in DRA?

I was going to increase the number of CDs, then color the extra "CDs" for the county parts.  This should give me demographic and political data for the split county parts.

But when I increment the number of districts, all the existing districts disappear.
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muon2
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« Reply #96 on: November 29, 2014, 10:03:47 PM »

Is there a way to get county splits in DRA?

I was going to increase the number of CDs, then color the extra "CDs" for the county parts.  This should give me demographic and political data for the split county parts.

But when I increment the number of districts, all the existing districts disappear.

Unfortunately no. The best I've found is to either reserve many additional districts and keep track of the real quota on my own spreadsheet, or to make a number of separate DRA files after the fact to highlight the chops.

There is one shortcut to all this that I've used quite effectively. Once the map is complete, I double check with the Find Unassigned Dists tool. After everything is assigned I can unassign any county fragment and look at the demographics of both the fragment and the remaining district. It can be time consuming for a lot of fragments, but it avoids clearing the original map.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #97 on: November 29, 2014, 10:35:39 PM »

Is there a way to get county splits in DRA?

I was going to increase the number of CDs, then color the extra "CDs" for the county parts.  This should give me demographic and political data for the split county parts.

But when I increment the number of districts, all the existing districts disappear.

Unfortunately no. The best I've found is to either reserve many additional districts and keep track of the real quota on my own spreadsheet, or to make a number of separate DRA files after the fact to highlight the chops.

There is one shortcut to all this that I've used quite effectively. Once the map is complete, I double check with the Find Unassigned Dists tool. After everything is assigned I can unassign any county fragment and look at the demographics of both the fragment and the remaining district. It can be time consuming for a lot of fragments, but it avoids clearing the original map.
I figured out a way.

Under file: Save VTD data as CSV,

This creates a CSV file.   For each VTD, there is the Census ID, District Assignment, VTD name, and County (or City), followed by the demographic and political data for the VTD.

I calculated my statistics for my CDs from the similar Save CD data as CSV.   It would seem useful to have people submit the CD CSV file to you, or maybe set up something on Google apps.
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muon2
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« Reply #98 on: November 30, 2014, 07:52:54 AM »

Since no commissioners have weighed in on the items before the commission, I'm not sure how to proceed. The process will drag out, and there will probably be a lack of interest if things don't keep moving. Commissioners morgieb, Miles, Del Tachi, and ElectionsGuy have all posted to the Atlas since Items 4 and 5 were posted, but not on those items. Only Fuzzybigfoot has been off since 11/26, and that's why there are two alternates: X and SLCValleyMan. Any feedback into how to get this on track is welcomed.
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morgieb
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« Reply #99 on: November 30, 2014, 09:05:56 AM »

I vote for Item 4 and 5. Although, I suppose in some cases strong skews/polarisation isn't really avoidable. I don't really like gerrymanders for competitiveness.
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