2014 Bellwether Counties

[CountyTy90]

Looking around the newly posted results of Illinois's gubernatorial and senatorial elections and comparing countywide results with statewide results, I realized some interesting patterns in which counties voted most closely to the statewide margins.

Here's a list of all statewide races and their bellwethers:

Senate



Illinois          Fulton   or   Rock Island

53.55%         53.13%        53.64%
42.69%         42.03%        43.11%
3.76%           4.84%          3.25%


Governor



Illinois          Rock Island

50.27%         50.47%
46.35%         45.61%
3.35%           3.91%


Secretary of State



Illinois          Fulton

65.70%         65.32%
31.39%         31.11%
2.89%           3.58%


Treasurer



Illinois          Rock Island

48.05%         48.34%
47.79%         47.61%
4.16%           4.05%


Attorney General



Illinois          Alexander

59.46%         59.50%
37.77%         37.68%
2.77%           2.82%


Comptroller



Illinois          St. Clair

49.56%         49.38%
45.67%         45.71%
4.76%           4.90%

As you can see, two counties stick out a number of times; Rock Island and Fulton. This didn't really surprise me as the two are generally bellwethers and are generally Democratic, but as you can see, have the ability to go Republican in the right years. Alexander County as a bellwether really surprised me since it's generally a strongly Democratic county, but then again the race was a strongly Democratic race. Also St. Clair surprised me. Traditionally a fairly strong Democratic county due to the influence of AA voters, this county has swung wildly to the middle becoming a swing county really and mirrored JBT's statewide result.

Now do your state.

[dpmapper]

Why is Fulton County so Democratic for downstate?  It doesn't have any major colleges or declining cities. 

[CountyTy90]

Why is Fulton County so Democratic for downstate?  It doesn't have any major colleges or declining cities.  

I'm not sure, I've really only been through there once. Very white, very rural. But it is basically the southern end of the region of western/northwestern Illinois that is very white, rural and is like adjacent parts in Wisconsin and Iowa that are the same (white, rural, moderately Democratic) when demographically it should be strongly Republican.

Also some nerdy trivia, in an early episode of Roseanne, Lanford is revealed to be in Fulton County.

[Miles]

Also some nerdy trivia, in an early episode of Roseanne, Lanford is revealed to be in Fulton County.

Yep! Roseanne is my favorite show Thats what I always think of when I see Fulton County on a map!

From what I hear, though, it was actually filmed in Indiana.

[CountyTy90]

Also some nerdy trivia, in an early episode of Roseanne, Lanford is revealed to be in Fulton County.

Yep! Roseanne is my favorite show Thats what I always think of when I see Fulton County on a map!

From what I hear, though, it was actually filmed in Indiana.

Well it's actually a mystery, really. Fulton County is located south of Peoria, yet, in later seasons they always talk about Elgin, Illinois, which is in Kane County, just to the west of Chicago.

What you're talking about are the scenes of the town of Lanford which are from Indiana I read somewhere. I think Evansville?

[nclib]

Fulton had the smallest margin for Rauner (though Rock Island) was more Democratic.

[ElectionsGuy]

Governor/Lt. Governor:

Overall: 52.3% Walker to 46.6% Burke
Trempealeau*: 52.4% Walker to 46.4% Burke

SoS:

Overall: 50.0% La Follette to 46.3% Bradley
Kenosha: 50.5% La Follette to 45.7% Bradley

AG:

Overall: 51.5% Schimel to 45.4% Happ
Door: 51.7% Schimel to 45.2% Happ

Treasurer:

Overall: 48.8% Adamczyk to 44.7% Sartori
Pierce: 48.7% Adamczyk to 44.3% Sartori

*Interesting, usually this county is more D-leaning.

[Miles]

^ Going by my WI county averages, Adams was the best overall bellwether. The average statewide vote was R+ 3.18% while Adams was R+ 2.68%. Pierce was the next closest, at R+ 3.88%.