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December 13, 2019, 07:55:40 am
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  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
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Author Topic: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3  (Read 28906 times)
Miles
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« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2014, 07:26:33 pm »
« edited: November 03, 2014, 07:30:48 pm by Miles »

If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?

Its possible. It was 23% in 2012; she'd have to overperform Obama by 4-5% with whites.

For reference, in 2008, Obama lost whites 64/35 while Hagan lost them 57/39.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #51 on: November 03, 2014, 07:30:26 pm »

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #52 on: November 03, 2014, 07:35:55 pm »

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.


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Unless the DPG and the combined campaigns have done an unprecedented and frankly unbelievable job at converting black election day voters in 2010 into black early voters in 2014, then it's possible that the final electorate is 32% black, which would be perhaps the biggest demographic upset of the night (considering Obama only managed to build a 30% black electorate in GA in 2008/2012, which was considered monumental).
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KCDem
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« Reply #53 on: November 03, 2014, 07:38:14 pm »

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.

I'm guessing dropoff to 31-30%.

At 93% Nunn that gets her to 28-29% of the vote.
If we assume whites at 64%, she needs to win others 50/50 in order to win with 30% of the white vote. I'm guessing she wins overs 3-2 which means she can probably drop to 28% of the white vote. Easily doable.
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Secretary of Billionaire Affairs Pete Buttigieg ($-IN)
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« Reply #54 on: November 03, 2014, 09:26:46 pm »

I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night. I think Orman's gonna win. Iowa's the biggest wild card. I literally won't be surprised either way.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #55 on: November 03, 2014, 09:32:24 pm »

I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night.

Your posts make my eyes bleed.
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KCDem
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« Reply #56 on: November 03, 2014, 09:33:48 pm »

I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night.

Your posts make my eyes bleed.

We know Republicans don't handle the truth well Wink
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2014, 10:12:32 pm »

Gregory the Gallant is winning moderates 77-19. Dayum. The DC Fossil is lucky he's in Kansas, otherwise he'd already be dead and slowly decomposing into crude oil.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2014, 10:18:17 pm »

I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night. I think Orman's gonna win. Iowa's the biggest wild card. I literally won't be surprised either way.

Win the election for the night or win the election and avoid the runoff?

It's possible, but looking unlikely that she wins the night.
It's very unlikely she clears 50% +1.

Most likely scenario is Perdue lead, but runoff.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #59 on: November 04, 2014, 01:32:09 am »

Undecideds don't look good for Braley in Iowa - Only 2% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 5% and 8% for Republicans and Independents. If things continue as they have, Ernst should win.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2014, 01:51:59 am »

So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2014, 01:58:01 am »

So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.

Yeah, but so did mostly everyone else, so they have that to fall back on.

Tbqh all pollsters should just disband and let Selzer and Marquette do everything.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #62 on: November 05, 2014, 02:03:40 am »

Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #63 on: November 05, 2014, 02:05:58 am »

Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #64 on: November 05, 2014, 02:08:17 am »

Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.

Junk poll!
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #65 on: November 05, 2014, 03:34:26 am »

Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.

     The problem is treating any pollster as foolproof. I remember when Rasmussen was considered the best, and then they had a really bad election cycle with a significant Republican bias.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #66 on: November 05, 2014, 04:32:08 am »

 Gardner should win by around 5,so that's still within the MOE.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #67 on: November 05, 2014, 08:07:11 am »

Actual results:

LOL@PPP!
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Oregreen
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« Reply #68 on: December 29, 2014, 05:59:49 pm »

Wait, so Orman is doing better in this than their internal poll, yet Davis is doing worse in this than his internal? Weird.

I would love to believe Brownback is only down 1. I'll be going into tomorrow night expecting a Brownback loss and 50/50 on Roberts or Orman, hopefully setting myself up for a pleasant surprise.

Everyone is giving up on Brownback. Even Republican operatives. Only Roberts has a prayer.

Junk prediction! Junk troll! Great ban!
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